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Newcastle Utd (and Viz)


daza_1973 said:
20 years ?

Try 45 if you value the Texaco cup
50 if you value the fairs inter city cup
65 if you if you go back to their last credible trophy the FA cup.
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They had 5 years or so in the 90's where they finished closer to the top of the league than the bottom, I'm counting that as the glory days.
 
I don't know if people have seen the Martin Samuel piece today. He's very close to Mike Ashley, and he is a lot more cautious, not just about the takeover but also the intentions. He raises a lot of similar points to what I've said over recent days, but interesting someone close to Ashley is saying them. These include;

1) Why has the takeover taken so long
2) Why have they become so obsessed over £40m
3) Why as yet has the funding not been shown?

It points to me that Staveley is raising capital to buy the club, and she is the de facto chairman. She needs to convince the Saudi's to part with £340m which she's been unable to do, so has had to get creative in trying to do this (having failed to get Ashley to lower his price).

There is also a suggestion from Samuel, that he thinks Ashley could be going forward on this expecting that when it comes to the show the money time, there won't be the finance. He also states his silence in this is a sign he's not convinced. I have no idea if thats true or not, and it sounds highly unlikely, but he's well connected.

It would be hilarious if that occurred though.
 
catcherintherye said:
I'm not doing, or certainly trying to do that. We know Mike Ashley is a problem. I mean I've had professional interactions with people who worked in relatively senior positions for Mike Ashley and there are many stories that emerge. He has a particular way he conducts business, shall we say.

I price that in though. It's not really even about blame, it's just about trying to gain an understanding of the different parties. Ashley in this instance has had his price. You either pay the price or you don't. If your plan is to come in, and turn Newcastle very quickly into a title challenging force, and you have hundreds of billions behind you, you really don't quibble about 40 million. It's inconsistent.

It's also inconsistent with what happened at Chelsea, Everton and Manchester City. Yes Ashley, but in all honesty, Bill Kenwright is known to be difficult to buy from (the fact it took us a decade longer than most clubs to be sold is down to him). Ken Bates was also known as a difficult man to negotiate with, and Shinawatra is a whole different level of difficulty to negotiate with. Bates and Shinawatra would have been ruder, more callous, more difficult than Ashley in all likelihood. Yet those sales went through in almost a day.

Why? Well we can suggest lots of reasons. The most obvious would be, that even if they had to pay a bit more to smooth the deal over, they saw it as small fry given they were intending to splurge massive sums in almost a philanthrophic gesture. My summation of the Newcastle case, with the evidence we have, is that it's not consistent with that outlook. It is consistent with people who probably partake in 90% of the takeovers, and want to make money from it and are squeezing the pounds.

That doesn't mean it's bad. I'm not saying you'll be as bad as under Ashley, but there is a middle point between City and Ashley and I think you sit somewhere within that. It seems like you are happy with that (as you should be) and I think thats a sensible attitude to take. I don't think people getting euphoric and massively ramping up expectations really helps the club. I would urge patience.

As for the final paragraph, I agree. I mean it's not unreasonable to say Ashleys lack of investment put you in real danger of relegation last summer didn't it?
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That's all fair enough and I think we agree on most parts even if we're slightly less aligned on Ashley's influence on all of this.I'm utterly convinced this deal could have gone through last season if Ashley wasn't as ornery as he is. We're hearing that the sticking point was £40m, but I can't see how we can trust that as gospel when we're not inside the deal process. It's as likely to me that it had something to do with merchandising rights (that he'd want to retain them as he tried with Rangers), or costs he tacked on ad hoc to make things tricky for Staveley et al. The price of the club does sound like it's come down to a more reasonable figure (I still think he overvalued us) and that maye have meant Ashley also relented on other parts of the deal? He's taking a pounding on the stock market, in the press and from teh government right now, perhaps this is the time to sell because of all these straws finally breaking the camels back?

Either way, the way the deal is structured speaks to me of trying to soften the reaction. by having staveley and the Reuben Brothers involved it diulutes the opprobirum, at least a little. Her part in all of this will become clearer as time goes on. I can't see the Saudis looking at Premier League football as a way to make money, they'd be better off hosting more boxing bouts, or F1 events and if they were truly only about the cash, why not buy Man Utd? They can afford it.
 

mikeh72 said:
Nothing made up about any of it. Especially not the torrent of unwarranted abuse Steve Bruce has had to suffer from your fans simply for being given a contract and performing at a perfectly adequate level.
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"obsession with Liverpool"? that's made up nonsese for a start.

Bruce wasn't welcomed by the Newcastle fanbase because he's been proven to be one of the worst Premier League managers of all time. The performances of the team this season have born that out. The reception has warmed slightly as results have ticked by, but he remains a poor football manager at this level. Put it this way, would you have been excited if he'd been appointed instead of Ancelotti?
 
Oh look a Newcastle fan is signed up to give it the bigun. This has gone historically well for all the other fans of other teams that have done this on GOT hasn’t it?
 

The Fish said:
"obsession with Liverpool"? that's made up nonsese for a start.

Bruce wasn't welcomed by the Newcastle fanbase because he's been proven to be one of the worst Premier League managers of all time. The performances of the team this season have born that out. The reception has warmed slightly as results have ticked by, but he remains a poor football manager at this level. Put it this way, would you have been excited if he'd been appointed instead of Ancelotti?
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Not saying you had to be "excited" but what has he done to deserve the abuse and venom your fans have been directing at him all season? Starting from before a ball was kicked?

You lot are obsessed with Liverpool. You were the only other fanbase in the country that didn't blow their loads laughing when Gerrard slipped to lose them the title, and you were all cheering them on to win the league last season. There were Newcastle fans on Twitter actually buzzing that you lose 3-2 against them towards the end of the season, as was your heffer of a manager. You're both like some weird combined cult, it's very unsettling.
 
The Fish said:
That's all fair enough and I think we agree on most parts even if we're slightly less aligned on Ashley's influence on all of this.I'm utterly convinced this deal could have gone through last season if Ashley wasn't as ornery as he is. We're hearing that the sticking point was £40m, but I can't see how we can trust that as gospel when we're not inside the deal process. It's as likely to me that it had something to do with merchandising rights (that he'd want to retain them as he tried with Rangers), or costs he tacked on ad hoc to make things tricky for Staveley et al. The price of the club does sound like it's come down to a more reasonable figure (I still think he overvalued us) and that maye have meant Ashley also relented on other parts of the deal? He's taking a pounding on the stock market, in the press and from teh government right now, perhaps this is the time to sell because of all these straws finally breaking the camels back?

Either way, the way the deal is structured speaks to me of trying to soften the reaction. by having staveley and the Reuben Brothers involved it diulutes the opprobirum, at least a little. Her part in all of this will become clearer as time goes on. I can't see the Saudis looking at Premier League football as a way to make money, they'd be better off hosting more boxing bouts, or F1 events and if they were truly only about the cash, why not buy Man Utd? They can afford it.
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I don't want to be defending Ashley. Look he's made a lot of money from newcastle whether he sells for £300m or £340m. He should sell, we agree on that. However he is what he is. He's a poor owner, who doesn't put any money into the club and one you'd expect to negotiate for every penny.

My point is, for a group who would need to put billions into the club in transfers alone to get close to what Chelsea/City did in real terms, it is inconsistent for them to be haggling for over a year on that basis around £40. You'd expect better from them, if they were as committed as people seem to suggest.

I think you are absolutely correct to evaluate the role of the Reuben Brothers and Staveley. It sounds to me, from the outside like Staveley is trying to raise funds, and will probably manage the club (or a consortium she is part of will). It looks like she is trying to raise the funds, and the Saudi's are willing to put x figure in and no more. She's then had to get creative to raise more more funds.

As for the Saudi's the final point is a really good one. If they wanted to have a big involvement in football, just buy United. I think they are dipping their toe in. We have this idea that every investor will want to plunge massive sums in. Not necessarily. Some want to play god and run the club. Many will just add something to their portfolio and allow someone else to run it for them in hopefully a sustainable way that will generate them more money. Tis is fairly standard business practice in the middle east.

I suspect Staveley feels she can run it better than Ashley and there may be money made from all of them if they invest smartly. Newcastle have been badly run, and with some targeted investment in the right areas, they will all do quite well out of it.

Thats my reading. Could be well out, but it would at least seem to fit with the wider pattern we are seeing with the information we have.
 

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