I'm sorry, but none of this makes sense. And I just don't by that someone in a gated community would reach for his gun, fire four shots, and only then think of his GF who he knew was in the house at the same time. Your entire argument seems to centre on, if you can come up with a big enough whopper, then regardless of the facts, everyone has to disprove your whopper to prove your guilt.
I might as well go down the village and smash some granny over the head and claim I think I was going to be mugged, and blame the poor street lighting for mistaking the granny for a mugger. I mean no one could 'disprove' my story ..........
I'm not even debating his innocence or guilt, i'm talking about whether he's going to be found guilty. Which i don't think he will be. If he gets bail (which it looks like he will, based on the shambolic prosecution thus far) then that gives the defence team several months to get his story as tight as can possibly be.