I think we will know our fate within about 5 matches.
We can write off the next 2 games in terms of having any hope (City away proved we may be capable of getting a draw in one, but very unlikely).
From the next 3 after the RS, we need 5-7 points with Leeds and Villa at Home, and Forest away. If we pick up less than 5 in them we will have too big a hill to climb. It's also important against Leeds and Forest we hurt them by winning or at least a draw in one of them. We cannot keep losing to these sides scrapping at the bottom - we have already given ourselves an extremely difficult task with losing the games we have recently rather than grinding out draws.