Relegation 2022/23

[ForeverBlue92]

I've had a look at the EFL rules and basically the calculation just continues to roll on the three year basis if you drop down. The loss threshold just carries over too - so for a year you were in the PL you are allowed the 35m loss you were allowed in the PL, then for any year you are in the EFL it's down to 13m.

So although the EFL threshold is 39m over three years, that only applies if you are in the EFL all three years. If you were in the PL for two years then spend one year in the EFL the P&S threshold is 35m + 35m + 13m = 83m over that three year period.

So to use Esk's calculations (yes, I know) if we lost 70m last season, broke even this season after pocketing the Gordon cash, we would then be in compliance for our two PL seasons and would have a permitted loss of 13m next season.

Breaking even (or at least staying within permitted loss) is doable:

If we break even this season with a one-off payment of 40m for Gordon then the equivalent of that next season is our parachute payment, also 40m+. Balances out.

We then lose an estimated 100m in tv and sponsorship revenue. So we probably need 100m in sales and wage savings to make up the shortfall. Let's say (fag packet estimates):

Doucoure and Mina leave at end of contracts, 10m wages saved
Sell Pickford for 20m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Onana for 35m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Dominic Calvert-Lewin for 20m, 5m wages saved.

That's 100m on the nose and we are looking at potentially breaking even for the season.

Obviously that doesn't leave us with a transfer budget, but we're still looking at the likes of Iwobi, Tarkowski, Godfrey, Holgate. Patterson and Gray as players who would potentially have sales value and we can pick and choose who to sell for transfer funds and who to keep as the foundation of our squad.

None of which is to say relegation is in any way a good thing, of course it isn't, just saying it probably isn't armageddon in terms of doing a Leeds / Sunderland. The way the rules are set up, especially the parachute payments, really is designed to prevent that from happening unless you are caught with a big squad of unshiftable players on big PL wages (us a few years ago, potentially Forest now).

Even in the Champo they're rather Conservative figures.

Pickford would fetch at least £40 millions and probably the same for Onana.

 

[JohnRoss23]

Those in the US will be able to watch all of our games live in the Championship next season right?

I believe so on the ESPN + app. Not necessarily all but most I believe.

 

[T LEAFE]

I believe so on the ESPN + app. Not necessarily all but most I believe.

Is that something to celebrate or cry?

 

[Harryflashman]

I've had a look at the EFL rules and basically the calculation just continues to roll on the three year basis if you drop down. The loss threshold just carries over too - so for a year you were in the PL you are allowed the 35m loss you were allowed in the PL, then for any year you are in the EFL it's down to 13m.

So although the EFL threshold is 39m over three years, that only applies if you are in the EFL all three years. If you were in the PL for two years then spend one year in the EFL the P&S threshold is 35m + 35m + 13m = 83m over that three year period.

So to use Esk's calculations (yes, I know) if we lost 70m last season, broke even this season after pocketing the Gordon cash, we would then be in compliance for our two PL seasons and would have a permitted loss of 13m next season.

Breaking even (or at least staying within permitted loss) is doable:

If we break even this season with a one-off payment of 40m for Gordon then the equivalent of that next season is our parachute payment, also 40m+. Balances out.

We then lose an estimated 100m in tv and sponsorship revenue. So we probably need 100m in sales and wage savings to make up the shortfall. Let's say (fag packet estimates):

Doucoure and Mina leave at end of contracts, 10m wages saved
Sell Pickford for 20m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Onana for 35m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Dominic Calvert-Lewin for 20m, 5m wages saved.

That's 100m on the nose and we are looking at potentially breaking even for the season.

Obviously that doesn't leave us with a transfer budget, but we're still looking at the likes of Iwobi, Tarkowski, Godfrey, Holgate. Patterson and Gray as players who would potentially have sales value and we can pick and choose who to sell for transfer funds and who to keep as the foundation of our squad.

None of which is to say relegation is in any way a good thing, of course it isn't, just saying it probably isn't armageddon in terms of doing a Leeds / Sunderland. The way the rules are set up, especially the parachute payments, really is designed to prevent that from happening unless you are caught with a big squad of unshiftable players on big PL wages (us a few years ago, potentially Forest now).

I’ll commend you on your working out and I suspect that’s why we’ve had kids out on loan and sold a couple of youngsters. Also , and this a compliment, you seem knowledgeable and very reasoned . I think I’ll maybe take some convincing we’ll break even this year . I appreciate we’ve shifted players but our wages are a huge part of our turnover and not matched by match day income not to mention sponsorship issues .

Next year If we lose a £100m and claw back a £100m which frankly I think you’re far too ambitious, but I’ll take your figures . Maupay on say what £50k , McNeill £70 , tarkowski £90k , Iwobi £100k , gueye £120 k and plenty more . Those wages aren’t sustainable but very likely nobody will buy them so we’ll end up giving them away or loaning them and paying half the wages to cut costs . All these players then have to be replaced , to give us any chance of promotion or being in contention . Look at Burnley , since we have their manager , it’s not a coincidence they loaned out their own big earner on the huge sum of £45k.

Even on your scenario I think we’d see a team potentially made up of youngsters, and ours aren’t good enough to have any chance of compliance and I think even then we’d be missing it .

Firstly I hope it doesn’t come to pass , secondly I hope you’re right if I does but I think relegation gives us a real chance of oblivion

 

[JohnRoss23]

Is that something to celebrate or cry?

Yes

 

[Tony’s Carp]

Even in the Champo they're rather Conservative figures.

Pickford would fetch at least £40 millions and probably the same for Onana.

With Pickford you have to factor in one year left on his contract, but yes I did try to keep it realistic / pessimistic with the numbers. DCL was the one hard to guess. Injury free few months and a few goals and he’s more than 20m even if we are ultimately relegated, break down again and he’s not worth a dime.

 

[Mickey]

There was an agent on Sky transfer show last night saying he has a lot of players on his books, but not a single one would he recommend to head to Everton due to the "ongoing situation with the owners and the fans", or words to that effect.

We're broke and agents like money. Nothing to do with fans or anything else. If we were flush he'd have been slapping lippy on his roster of crap and have them catwalking into Finch Farm.

 

[Harryflashman]

Even in the Champo they're rather Conservative figures.

Pickford would fetch at least £40 millions and probably the same for Onana.

History tends to show relegated teams , particularly those with financial issues tend to prices significantly less than players are worth . Because the players don’t want to be there and because the clubs can’t support the wages .

The poster was quite conservative but I wouldn’t be surprised if the figures were nearer his than yours or just as likely I suppose somewhere in the middle .

 

[Harryflashman]

There was an agent on Sky transfer show last night saying he has a lot of players on his books, but not a single one would he recommend to head to Everton due to the "ongoing situation with the owners and the fans", or words to that effect.

Can you imagine him giving the same advice if he was looking at a £1m sweetener for him and tripling his clients wages ? We’re a car crash and I don’t blame anyone for avoiding us but the idea that everyone is steering clear of us for these reasons alone and to the detriment of their own financial well-being feels like a nice little narrative and a fair amount of BS.

 

[paultheblue]

After leaving the last window I think the rest of the season will be very very tough, the only position we will be in after Arsenal and Liverpool is bottom. You`d have to be beyond deluded to think we`d get anything from them games....

Then how do we cope with the rest, FYI 9 of our last 18 are top 6 (7), Brighton away and Newcastle..... so we got a 9 game mini season to save ourselves, we need 25 points from them 9.... NOT DO-ABLE

I have just checked what our position was after 20 games in the last 2 close calls to relegation and even the season we were actually relegated and it doesnt look good.
1950/51 16pts (based on 3 points for a win)
1993/94 25pts
1997/98 17pts
So basic we are in a worse position than all of them and scarily we are 10 points worse off than 94 where we were 10 minutes away from relegation

 

[ForeverEverton]

I have just checked what our position was after 20 games in the last 2 close calls to relegation and even the season we were actually relegated and it doesnt look good.
1950/51 16pts (based on 3 points for a win)
1993/94 25pts
1997/98 17pts
So basic we are in a worse position than all of them and scarily we are 10 points worse off than 94 where we were 10 minutes away from relegation

Dyche needs 22-25 points from 18 games...... really dont think he will get that.....

 

[Willie Thorne]

Struggling to see three worse teams in the division. Down.

 

[apsc1928]

I've had a look at the EFL rules and basically the calculation just continues to roll on the three year basis if you drop down. The loss threshold just carries over too - so for a year you were in the PL you are allowed the 35m loss you were allowed in the PL, then for any year you are in the EFL it's down to 13m.

So although the EFL threshold is 39m over three years, that only applies if you are in the EFL all three years. If you were in the PL for two years then spend one year in the EFL the P&S threshold is 35m + 35m + 13m = 83m over that three year period.

So to use Esk's calculations (yes, I know) if we lost 70m last season, broke even this season after pocketing the Gordon cash, we would then be in compliance for our two PL seasons and would have a permitted loss of 13m next season.

Breaking even (or at least staying within permitted loss) is doable:

If we break even this season with a one-off payment of 40m for Gordon then the equivalent of that next season is our parachute payment, also 40m+. Balances out.

We then lose an estimated 100m in tv and sponsorship revenue. So we probably need 100m in sales and wage savings to make up the shortfall. Let's say (fag packet estimates):

Doucoure and Mina leave at end of contracts, 10m wages saved
Sell Pickford for 20m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Onana for 35m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Dominic Calvert-Lewin for 20m, 5m wages saved.

That's 100m on the nose and we are looking at potentially breaking even for the season.

Obviously that doesn't leave us with a transfer budget, but we're still looking at the likes of Iwobi, Tarkowski, Godfrey, Holgate. Patterson and Gray as players who would potentially have sales value and we can pick and choose who to sell for transfer funds and who to keep as the foundation of our squad.

None of which is to say relegation is in any way a good thing, of course it isn't, just saying it probably isn't armageddon in terms of doing a Leeds / Sunderland. The way the rules are set up, especially the parachute payments, really is designed to prevent that from happening unless you are caught with a big squad of unshiftable players on big PL wages (us a few years ago, potentially Forest now).

great research and post that mate, thanks

 

[brieverton]

Relegation I can take, now. Points deductions would test my limits. If that happened we would fall further. I'd prefer administration than seeing us die like that.

 

[ZissouBlue]

I've had a look at the EFL rules and basically the calculation just continues to roll on the three year basis if you drop down. The loss threshold just carries over too - so for a year you were in the PL you are allowed the 35m loss you were allowed in the PL, then for any year you are in the EFL it's down to 13m.

So although the EFL threshold is 39m over three years, that only applies if you are in the EFL all three years. If you were in the PL for two years then spend one year in the EFL the P&S threshold is 35m + 35m + 13m = 83m over that three year period.

So to use Esk's calculations (yes, I know) if we lost 70m last season, broke even this season after pocketing the Gordon cash, we would then be in compliance for our two PL seasons and would have a permitted loss of 13m next season.

Breaking even (or at least staying within permitted loss) is doable:

If we break even this season with a one-off payment of 40m for Gordon then the equivalent of that next season is our parachute payment, also 40m+. Balances out.

We then lose an estimated 100m in tv and sponsorship revenue. So we probably need 100m in sales and wage savings to make up the shortfall. Let's say (fag packet estimates):

Doucoure and Mina leave at end of contracts, 10m wages saved
Sell Pickford for 20m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Onana for 35m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Dominic Calvert-Lewin for 20m, 5m wages saved.

That's 100m on the nose and we are looking at potentially breaking even for the season.

Obviously that doesn't leave us with a transfer budget, but we're still looking at the likes of Iwobi, Tarkowski, Godfrey, Holgate. Patterson and Gray as players who would potentially have sales value and we can pick and choose who to sell for transfer funds and who to keep as the foundation of our squad.

None of which is to say relegation is in any way a good thing, of course it isn't, just saying it probably isn't armageddon in terms of doing a Leeds / Sunderland. The way the rules are set up, especially the parachute payments, really is designed to prevent that from happening unless you are caught with a big squad of unshiftable players on big PL wages (us a few years ago, potentially Forest now).

I’ll commend you on your working out and I suspect that’s why we’ve had kids out on loan and sold a couple of youngsters. Also , and this a compliment, you seem knowledgeable and very reasoned . I think I’ll maybe take some convincing we’ll break even this year . I appreciate we’ve shifted players but our wages are a huge part of our turnover and not matched by match day income not to mention sponsorship issues .

Next year If we lose a £100m and claw back a £100m which frankly I think you’re far too ambitious, but I’ll take your figures . Maupay on say what £50k , McNeill £70 , tarkowski £90k , Iwobi £100k , gueye £120 k and plenty more . Those wages aren’t sustainable but very likely nobody will buy them so we’ll end up giving them away or loaning them and paying half the wages to cut costs . All these players then have to be replaced , to give us any chance of promotion or being in contention . Look at Burnley , since we have their manager , it’s not a coincidence they loaned out their own big earner on the huge sum of £45k.

Even on your scenario I think we’d see a team potentially made up of youngsters, and ours aren’t good enough to have any chance of compliance and I think even then we’d be missing it .

Firstly I hope it doesn’t come to pass , secondly I hope you’re right if I does but I think relegation gives us a real chance of oblivion

I can squint and see a way out, but I think even if we end up okay vis a vis the overall losses, the biggest issue will be the wages. I don't really know what the actual wages are for players, but the websites I looked at (Capology & Spotrac) has the current highest earner in the Championship making around £60K (Sarr ironically) but with everyone else £50K or less. Let's say we need to have a similar max wage of £50K-60K, even players like Maupay, Mykolenko, Godfrey, Holgate are on the edge and should probably be sold so that they aren't the highest earners in the division.

Doucoure and Mina will move on, but you have to shift Tarkowski, Iwobi, Pickford, Onana, Calvert-Lewin, Gana, Keane. And that's not counting Gomes, Dele and Gbamin who are all signed for another year. We could sell a decent number of those players, but would take a loss on a couple and/or need to pay the majority of wages especially for the last three to be loaned out.

That leaves us with a core of Branthwaite, Price, Patterson, Mills, Garner, Davies if resigned, Simms, Gray, McNeil (I feel like the estimates for the last two might be too lower and closer to Godfrey for example). I'm probably missing a couple there, but is that good enough to be competitive in the Championship? Between paying wages for players that we can't sell and likely getting deflated prices for our most valuable assets, would we have enough money to buy adequate replacements? And all of this probably happening in a very protracted way if there is a board shakeup or takeover.

We're definitely in a better place with wages than we were a few years ago, but we are also a worse team and I'd be worried.