Harryflashman
Player Valuation: £60m
I take your point on parachute payment but I still think we’ll do well to be only around £100m down before we start . So making that up is going to be a task . I think we probably will have the highest revenue but frankly we’ll have the highest outlay to match it and the highest championship income is relative isn’t it ?Thanks - re breaking even this year I'm taking the word of Esk who projects we will turn a profit this season. Not sure he knows as much as he thinks he does but he knows more than me! Basically all my other calculations are projected from a break even number this season, and what we would need to do to maintain that next season bearing in mind the loss of revenue.
Obviously the more we can get off the wage bill the better as it would allow us to invest in better value players. My calculation was just that it needn't be done in an absolute panic. My point was just that unlike years past we are not stuck with as many high earners and that most (not all) of our biggest earners are either leaving anyway (Mina, Doucoure) or have a good prospect of resale (Onana, Iwobi Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Tarkowski)- the Gylfis, Bernards and Tosuns of this world are mostly gone. Certainly some problems remain (rehoming the three returning loanees mainly) but if my calculations are right we could absorb a reasonably high wage bill for the first year at least.
I know the salary sites are unreliable but using Capology's numbers they estimate 80m a year and 7 players - Doucoure, Iwobi, Mina, Onana, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Tarkowski and PIckford account for almost exactly half of that, before even moving on to the likes of Keane and Gueye. Those numbers may be inaccurate but as long as they are roughly in the right proportion that means we can more or less half the playing squad's wage bill by losing two who are out of contract anyway and 5 who would attract buyers without too much problem. Even if we only shipped 5 or 6 of those it's a huge dent. And you have to bear in mind that while Championship revenue is greatly reduced, with a parachute payment they're still pretty decent, and we will almost certainly have the highest revenue in the league.
Personally I don’t think you’ll find anyone paying a fee and matching gueye or Iwobi , tarkowski was worth his money to us on a free . I think he’ll be a Hard sell at those wages with a contract in front of him . Keane I think we’d shift but I wouldn’t expect to be banking much .
I’ve actually seen varying wages , specifically for McNeill and maupay but those McNeill wages seem more reasonable. You’d probably sell him for that to be honest but maupay could be significantly more challenging. I happen to know personally there are a couple of youngsters on pretty significant wages (relatively speaking ), wages that’d put them right amongst the mid earners at a few championship clubs and they’ve never featured .
If you’re moving what 8/10 players out including contracts then who are we going to replace them with ? We’ve not got much in terms of youth and rebuilding would cost .
I can see the point in your argument and I’d love you to be right , I just feel we’re hugely exposed.
