Relegation 2022/23

[Ring master]

Will keep thinking it, that the 4 games (3 Home & Forest away) mid Feb to mid march will be crucial - we really could do with taking 10 points from 4 games at worst for me. Teams/Fans were probably thinking the worst after we went and beat Arsenal - But then in typical Everton style everyone else goes and gets points/wins around us bar bottom 2. we need to hang around the few above us if and when results don't go well, I would not put it past West Ham to go and beat Chelsea in the early Sat game, then we have the saints v wolves which a draw will probably be the best for us so one doesn't close the gap to much or one doesn't get further away, We could do with favours from Spurs/Fulham/Man Utd this W/E, so many things to think with so much of the season to go

 

[glory_daze]

And after what we did v Arsenal, we shouldn't be writing off games. If if we spawn a 0-0 or 1-1.

We don't spawn anything at that place, you just know Gakpo is getting his first goal(s) on Monday to win it for them.

 

[knowing your history]

But last season, Burnley got 35 points, and honestly had quite a big turnaround to do so. I don't remember so many being in and around it, but could be wrong.

We also don't know all of them to be below it, only 1.
Palace haven't won a game in 9. Leeds haven't won a game in 8. West Ham have European commitments and may panic and sack Moyes. That's before you mention the rest. To me, it's not that wild that Leedswin say 4 of the next 17, when they have won 2 in 18.

Where I agree though, is we need to look after ourselves and be looking to get to 40+ points.

Burnley were only on about 14-15 at this stage of the season I think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60210237

This is closest table I could find that is similar to this situation. Norwich on 16 and they only picked up another 6 points and Watford basically gave up a few games later.

Newcastle went on some run didn't they.

From that table no one really dropped from mid table pack to be seriously threatened by relegation given Leeds were only 6 points clear of 18th. So by that metric Palace and Forest are still very much in this but they'd both back themselves to get 4 more wins from last 17.

 

[catcherintherye]

Burnley were only on about 14-15 at this stage of the season I think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60210237

This is closest table I could find that is similar to this situation. Norwich on 16 and they only picked up another 6 points and Watford basically gave up a few games later.

Newcastle went on some run didn't they.

From that table no one really dropped from mid table pack to be seriously threatened by relegation given Leeds were only 6 points clear of 18th. So by that metric Palace and Forest are still very much in this but they'd both back themselves to get 4 more wins from last 17.

I agree with all that mate.
At the risk of being a pedant, the gap from 19th to 14th this season is is 4 points and last season was 8. There are 7 teams below where Leeds were. I'm not convinced they all get the same number of points Leeds did last season.
What you see from last season, is some teams fell away, and some went on a great run, while others went the same speed. I think you will see similar this season.
Southampton very nearly went down last season, so forme Palace and down still bang in it. We had the same points Leicester/Wolves did last season, and at one point were ded and buried. They are not out of it at all.

 

[Wat Tyler]

We could do with West Ham sacking Moyes.

Their next two Chelsea and Spurs

 

[blueblood]

I think we all remember the run from the Burnley game to the end of the season and looking anxiously at everyone else’s results. There are still 17 games to play- the next 6 are critical, in particular the Leeds, Brentford and villa home games and Forest away. 8-10 points from them and we’ll probably start putting teams between us and the bottom 3 and the pressure lifts a bit, Dyche has ridden this rodeo before. I have far more confidence in him grounding out results than Lampard. If we can replicate the atmosphere from Saturday and make Goodison a horrible place for away teams to play, our home form could see us safe.

 

[evertony]

Southampton, Bournemouth and one of us , Forest and Leeds....that said I think we’ll stay up reasonably comfortably.

 

[Saint Domingo]

The 3 points against Arsenal will have been an absolute body blow for some of the teams around us who would have been hoping to increase the gap over us and instead found that it’s narrowed.

If we could somehow beat Liverpool then there’s be a lot of panic amongst the squads of Leeds Palace Forest West Ham

 

[knowing your history]

I agree with all that mate.
At the risk of being a pedant, the gap from 19th to 14th this season is is 4 points and last season was 8. There are 7 teams below where Leeds were. I'm not convinced they all get the same number of points Leeds did last season.
What you see from last season, is some teams fell away, and some went on a great run, while others went the same speed. I think you will see similar this season.
Southampton very nearly went down last season, so forme Palace and down still bang in it. We had the same points Leicester/Wolves did last season, and at one point were ded and buried. They are not out of it at all.

Looking at the fixtures I actually think West Ham remain in big trouble. Because they've just taken 4 points and signed a few players people under the illusion they'll be fine but they still have to play all of Chelsea, Man. United, Newcastle, Liverpool and Arsenal from their remaining 9 home games. Don't win any of those and huge pressure for them to win the others and likes of Villa and Forest could easily grind out draws.

Only one away win all season still so I don't think the path for them to get to 37-38 is actually as straightforward as for likes of Wolves and Leicester. They'll also be restarting europe again in March and their results really dipped in last two months of last season.

They'll probably be lights out v Chelsea now and win 3-0 now I've typed that.

 

[blueblood]

I think when it comes to the crunch I have more faith in Dyche getting a tune out of our players than Lampard. If I was a player I wouldn’t want to go in at half time to face Dyche if I hadn’t run through brick walls to get a result. Whereas Lampard just looked deflated as soon as we conceded and had no clue what to do.

 

[davek]

Leeds tonight: yes, a good point for them, I suppose. But to me the only result worth having is 3 points for a win down there. I can actually see them drawing or losing against United on Sunday.

As for us, back to back wins get us out of the mire for a couple of weeks. We have the chance to get that on Monday. If we do - the teams below will see us beating Arsenal and Liverpool and their arses will drop...even if we get a draw to add to the Arsenal win they will.

IMO we need another 7 wins....7 wins or 6 wins and 3 draws. 39 points should be ok.

 

[cantlivewithem]

The league is very similar to last year. I dont see Wolves Leicester Leeds or West Ham getting under 35 points. Palace or Forest would need to absolutely freefall to not get to 35 points.

So I dont see how low 30s could possibly be enough. We need to be aiming for more like 38

The thing is Leicester, Leeds, Forest, Wolves , West Ham and Palace cant all get that many points as they all have to play each other in the remaining fixtures so they are going to be taking point off each other. If we win 6 and draw 2 of our last 17 games that gives us 38 points. That seems like a tall order but that would still mean we lose 9 of our last 17 games and I don't think we are going to lose one in every 2 games we play between now and the end of the season. Our only worry is that we are kind of relying on winning games one- nil as we dont have loads of goals in us. We are a much better team than this time last year purely because we have a proper manager to see the season out with this time round

 

[johnjoeefc]

Looking at the fixtures I actually think West Ham remain in big trouble. Because they've just taken 4 points and signed a few players people under the illusion they'll be fine but they still have to play all of Chelsea, Man. United, Newcastle, Liverpool and Arsenal from their remaining 9 home games. Don't win any of those and huge pressure for them to win the others and likes of Villa and Forest could easily grind out draws.

Only one away win all season still so I don't think the path for them to get to 37-38 is actually as straightforward as for likes of Wolves and Leicester. They'll also be restarting europe again in March and their results really dipped in last two months of last season.

They'll probably be lights out v Chelsea now and win 3-0 now I've typed that.

I personally can't see it mate. I think West ham are better than the likes of us, Leeds and forest. Realistically I think we are battling with them 2 and the 2 below us of which at least one will go on some kind of run.

 

[Swartzy]

Is that ball bag VVD still injured for Sunday?

Yeah. Just a shame he'll be given the all clear Monday though.

 

[Swartzy]

We just need to get our head above water ASAP and then just doggy-paddle to safety if we have to.
This season is scaring me more then the last one..

We finally get a great win sat and then
Leicester win away
Wolves beat the filth
West ham get a point away
Forest win
And now Leeds have grabbed a point at old Trafford

We get a result like that and the only benefit we got was not drifting further...