True. It could all go wrong. Which is why I look at the trend of a manager, and take it from there. You can get lucky, sure.
But you accurately called Moyes out before he set foot in Old Trafford. Pretty sure you were bang on how that would turn out. And you will probably be right about where he will end up. Toss up between Villa, Newcastle and Celtic IIRC.
Based on what? Watching him week in, week out. Thats what.
Thats the exact same analysis that has made my mind up with Martinez.
Cant see why you cannot see that as cool, rational, decision making.