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2023/24 Sean Dyche

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2022-23
View attachment 226657

2021-22
View attachment 226658
From here:

20/21 we were massively outperforming XG under Carlo. Difference to those seasons was DCL was fit and regularly scoring.

Beto and/or DCL doing the same this season and we'll be back closer to the middle pack as our XG will be more equal.

Other key difference though was the defensive organisation in 20/21, at least until the late collapse when Carlo lost interest.
 
Our chance creation has jumped hugely this year mate, essentially - 5.28, is ridiculously unlucky, you can see how much of an outlier in the table and our own table from previous years.

Statistical model would suggest that goals are coming.

Agree its a bit of both, I'm thinking Maupay hitting it at the Keeper repeatedly, but then I'm also thinking of almost every keeper we've faced has gone with man of the match.
I like it.

At least you are not saying that we should have seven points, not one.
 
I like it.

At least you are not saying that we should have seven points, not one.
I dont think many people are saying we should have seven points, I think they are saying the stats shows that the manager has done fine to set the team up for goals, and one can probably expect to see improved scoring later. The team deserves to have 1 point, but this is a discussion about not just the whole team but one aspect of it(manager). Stats like xG generally tell you either you have been unlucky, or you have a finishing problem.
 

Our chance creation has jumped hugely this year mate, essentially - 5.28, is ridiculously unlucky, you can see how much of an outlier in the table and our own table from previous years.

Statistical model would suggest that goals are coming.

Agree its a bit of both, I'm thinking Maupay hitting it at the Keeper repeatedly, but then I'm also thinking of almost every keeper we've faced has gone with man of the match.

Yeah the stats showed last year, say just after we'd beat Palace 3-0, that we were overpeforming and keeping way more goals out than we should have been, be that through Pickford heroics, the other teams not being clinical etc... and what happened? Eventually our performances caught up with us. If the same regression to the mean happens this year, we'll be fine.

Obviously, it's no guarantee, and we still have yet to play a really good side, but there are encouraging signs.
 
Yeah the stats showed last year, say just after we'd beat Palace 3-0, that we were overpeforming and keeping way more goals out than we should have been, be that through Pickford heroics, the other teams not being clinical etc... and what happened? Eventually our performances caught up with us. If the same regression to the mean happens this year, we'll be fine.

Obviously, it's no guarantee, and we still have yet to play a really good side, but there are encouraging signs.

That it mate, it suggests that our chance creation is so high, that statistically the law of probability will average and goals will come.

We've been woefully unlucky - but that's our way.
 

Be interesting to see if we’re still talking hard luck stories in 5 games time. Also interesting to note that we only survived and therefore he only kept his job last season because of another team’s goalkeeper making a save in a game we weren’t involved in. How’s your luck Sean.

That logic dismisses the previous games all teams had beforehand. And if we're just talking that game, Newcastle should have been well ahead before Leicester came out of their shell for the last 10 mins.

But yeah like, I do agree, we need to see wins soon.
 
Be interesting to see if we’re still talking hard luck stories in 5 games time. Also interesting to note that we only survived and therefore he only kept his job last season because of another team’s goalkeeper making a save in a game we weren’t involved in. How’s your luck Sean.
Or 37 games or incidents, saves, misses etc contributed to us staying up.
We could easily say we only stayed up cause Pickford saved a penalty against Leicester.
 

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