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2023/24 Sean Dyche

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Just so I’m clear on this Xg debate, I’m supposed to be happy about goals we nearly scored?? And if the team that we played had lower Xg but actually scored and we lose I’m supposed to see the benefit of higher Xg?? When did goal difference become irrelevant??
Not happy, but it does indicate that the team are putting in something resembling better performances
Better than losing with no xG, no entertainment & no hope
 
The only reason I don’t have my pitchfork out already is because Dyche is trying to build and play the right way. We have a decent front setup and a solid central midfield. We have a solid center back pairing. The team is young with veteran leadership. My main criticism is he is sticking with Ashley Young and that is about it.

We sold Iwobi and I can’t help but feel he was happy to let him go as he didn’t fit the quick direct style we are trying to play. That is a massive thumbs up from me. The way we play is entertaining and in theory we can beat every team with the way the team is set up from mid to front. It is very athletic and can capitalize on mistakes. The stats back him thus far in terms of chances and we have in fairness missed a lot of golden chances. That should improve in theory.

The problem is we are still very Everton and by that I mean soft as heck. We make the silliest mistakes that cost us games. He needs to have them better prepared to deal with adversity. If the stuff in theory doesn’t improve, he will likely be fired. I find it hard to believe he can coach the Everton out of this side. The mistakes will likely stay. That means we have to score our chances.
 
Great, then you all wish we still had Rafael Benitez you nitwits, because that's exactly what I described and you forgot that happened just 2 years ago. Absolutely nobody cares how many points you have on matchday 8 vs matchday 38.
Big difference though. Dyche has had half a season, a pre season and a transfer window to get us here. Benitez started well points wise despite not performing well before the points followed the performances off a cliff.

xG is a garbage stat. Both managers are extremely limited. Every point matters to clubs like us and we should massively care about how many points we are on at this stage.

Imagine if Dyches performances now follow the points and fall off a cliff. We go down. We needed more points at this stage.
 
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There are two obvious problems with the xG stat as being used for predicting or projecting our on-field performance is simply that they critique the role of a goalkeeper, and cause the devaluation of good center-forwards. Any goalie picked at random is expected to leak a percentage of goals irrespective of who they are against. For a forwards' case, the model equates the forward to say a goalkeeper when the chance I taken, and on the other hand, CFs occupy the opposition defense to allow a good shot to be fired from their teammate.
The appalling thing is that the xG is delivered to the world as a 'good' statistic for the match when it only serves to decontextualize a performance.
Our Manager using xGs to defend is the same as Benitez's Facts rant, and most of us are ok with it...
 
Big difference though. Dyche has had half a season, a pre season and a transfer window to get us here. Benitez started well points wise despite not performing well before the points followed the performances off a cliff.

xG is a garbage stat. Both managers are extremely limited. Every point matters to clubs like us and we should massively care about how many points we are on at this stage.

Imagine if Dyches performances now follow the points and fall off a cliff. We go down. We needed more points at this stage.
your last line is the worry but I am getting the feeling this season something has changed. We did flunk the first few games but we made lots of good chances and had McNeil and DCL been fit and playing, those games may have looked very different. We now have them both back, are still making chances, putting some away and we now have a backup of Beto and Chermiti who may be far from the finished article, but they aren't a completely ineffective Maupey.

By the time we get to Christmas, we'll have a solid idea of whether things have improved or whether we are in the same cycle as th last two seasons. I'm confident.

Now lets go smash some RS
 
your last line is the worry but I am getting the feeling this season something has changed. We did flunk the first few games but we made lots of good chances and had McNeil and DCL been fit and playing, those games may have looked very different. We now have them both back, are still making chances, putting some away and we now have a backup of Beto and Chermiti who may be far from the finished article, but they aren't a completely ineffective Maupey.

By the time we get to Christmas, we'll have a solid idea of whether things have improved or whether we are in the same cycle as th last two seasons. I'm confident.

Now lets go smash some RS
We should absolutely smash some RS! COYB!!

But hindsight is 20/20, on current terms if both Thelwell and Dyche are no longer in charge come January (we can continue to hear very legitimate claims that PL teams are not easy and that our some illegitimate claims about EFC), we will be left with next to no actual assets that have been paid for, several high-value players on loan. All of this costs a lot of money even if we sell or not. The sunk cost from the fans will be so high that we can only try to manage our very public demise. Even under 'new' board or ownership, we still have no clarity on how to keep the club afloat. Kev and Dyche need to let us know what they plan for Everton in the next transfer market and where do we stand in terms of playing style that is not just some sordid statistic.
 
This of course takes time, like improving all areas of the team. i think the latest window the team looks better considering our financial constraints and big mistakes in the past. I think Thelwell and Dyche should get some credit. If other cant see positive progress then im not sure what people are expecting. I can definitely see progress overall with our performace levels. But this is a long project to get us back anywhere near consistent in the top half of the table.
yup, spot on that.
 

There are two obvious problems with the xG stat as being used for predicting or projecting our on-field performance is simply that they critique the role of a goalkeeper, and cause the devaluation of good center-forwards. Any goalie picked at random is expected to leak a percentage of goals irrespective of who they are against. For a forwards' case, the model equates the forward to say a goalkeeper when the chance I taken, and on the other hand, CFs occupy the opposition defense to allow a good shot to be fired from their teammate.
The appalling thing is that the xG is delivered to the world as a 'good' statistic for the match when it only serves to decontextualize a performance.
Our Manager using xGs to defend is the same as Benitez's Facts rant, and most of us are ok with it...

xG also doesn't address quality of chances. Reminds me too much of Martinez's insistence that we 'battered' teams just by floating in a dozen poor crosses a game.

Luton, Wolves, Fulham, Sheff Utd. 1 pt.

I think Sean started badly but is fixing things. He needs to learn to use DCL sensibly and get goals from Danjuma, Beto and co. And sort the defense.
 
xG also doesn't address quality of chances. Reminds me too much of Martinez's insistence that we 'battered' teams just by floating in a dozen poor crosses a game.

Luton, Wolves, Fulham, Sheff Utd. 1 pt.

I think Sean started badly but is fixing things. He needs to learn to use DCL sensibly and get goals from Danjuma, Beto and co. And sort the defense.
It is like watching that trailer for a film which highlights all the best bits yet ignore all the reviews and be surprised at being disappointed it's as bad as everyone said...

It's football not an entertainment show, I don't care if we just create one chance and score from it as long as we don't concede, just win games!
 

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