The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[Seanjd]

Which polls are they ?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

 

[Seanjd]

Shy Tories - as if. They make their voices heard just as much as anybody else. Why would a Tory voter be ashamed to vote Tory if they didn't believe there was anything to be ashamed of?

 

[The Esk]

Which polls are they ?

I used the Guardian average of polls which looks at all polls including constituency level polling, national and English regional polling and national level polling.

The Guardian’s average of polls aims to best represent a snapshot of the polls as they stand. The model aims to translate what polling figures would mean in terms of seats if an election were to take place today (and, of course, if the polls were right).

 

[davek]

YouGov

Con 34%
Lab 35%

 

[sbbefc]

I think given that Everton has proportionately a high level of "working class" support, it is to be expected that this forum is probably unrepresentative of the nation as a whole. I'm not sure how many conservative voters talking to pollsters would wish to hide their real intent though - why would they?

Anyway in 9 days we will know - for the Conservatives to have more seats than Labour they will require roughly a 4% lead in voters which is within the current margins for error, what is clear though, and this was my point that a Conservative/LD coalition is looking very unlikely without a significant surge in the polls.

What can be revealed or happen now that would cause such a surge? Unlikely to be any significant new policy announcements, in the final week, trategists will be focusing on getting as many supporters out to vote rather than changing peoples minds. The only plausible scenario then is a Gillian Duffy moment.....

The tories and the tory press will have something held back to unleash a few days before polling day im sure. No doubt a pretty similar scenario to all the lies they fed the Scots before the referendum vote.

I'm not ruling out a nasty coalition wich includes ukip just yet.

 

[The Cowboy]

I think given that Everton has proportionately a high level of "working class" support, it is to be expected that this forum is probably unrepresentative of the nation as a whole. I'm not sure how many conservative voters talking to pollsters would wish to hide their real intent though - why would they?

Anyway in 9 days we will know - for the Conservatives to have more seats than Labour they will require roughly a 4% lead in voters which is within the current margins for error, what is clear though, and this was my point that a Conservative/LD coalition is looking very unlikely without a significant surge in the polls.

What can be revealed or happen now that would cause such a surge? Unlikely to be any significant new policy announcements, in the final week, trategists will be focusing on getting as many supporters out to vote rather than changing peoples minds. The only plausible scenario then is a Gillian Duffy moment.....

These polls though, they're working on a PR logic though, right? I mean UKIP are week higher in the polls than LD but will end up with vastly fewer seats.

I expect there will be a sizeable number of poll participants who simply refuse to answer if they feel uncomfortable about revealing their choice. Hence why I believe the % of Tory votes is probably higher than the polls suggest.

(Not buying the working class thing though - fact of the matter is, it's almost like social suicide to admit to being a Tory voter on social media)

 

[Seanjd]

(Not buying the working class thing though - fact of the matter is, it's almost like social suicide to admit to being a Tory voter on social media)

Why though?

 

[The Cowboy]

Why though?

Dunno. It's true though.

 

[Clint Planet]

Shy Tories - as if. They make their voices heard just as much as anybody else. Why would a Tory voter be ashamed to vote Tory if they didn't believe there was anything to be ashamed of?

I agree, it's probably more to do with that slight shame about voting "selfishly" and maybe even, shall we say, "unreconstructedly." I remember clearly the deflating experience of 1992 when the exit polls suggested a Labour majority and yet the outcome was a clear (shock) Tory victory.

 

[The Esk]

The tories and the tory press will have something held back to unleash a few days before polling day im sure. No doubt a pretty similar scenario to all the lies they fed the Scots before the referendum vote.

I'm not ruling out a nasty coalition wich includes ukip just yet.

Projections based on Guardian methodology:

Con & L/D & DUP & UKIP = 313 seats (and this is an unlikely alliance L/D, DUP and UKIP), not enough to pass confidence vote.

The Tories have to make a huge breakthrough in the next few days to stand any chance, or Ed Miliband has to commit an enormous blunder to lose no 10.

 

[Brennan]

I used the Guardian average of polls which looks at all polls including constituency level polling, national and English regional polling and national level polling.

The Guardian’s average of polls aims to best represent a snapshot of the polls as they stand. The model aims to translate what polling figures would mean in terms of seats if an election were to take place today (and, of course, if the polls were right).

Thats rather different to what you originally posted. A projection which the Guardian themselves admit may not reflect accurately what actually happens on Election Day. You can't possibly declare there won't be another coalition based on that...

 

[Clint Planet]

YouGov

Con 34%
Lab 35%

 

[The Esk]

Thats rather different to what you originally posted. A projection which the Guardian themselves admit may not reflect accurately what actually happens on Election Day. You can't possibly declare there won't be another coalition based on that...

Well I stand by my assertion there is no chance of the Liberal Democrats forming a coalition in Government, the maths do not add up for a Con/LD coalition. Miliband does not need them as long as SNP commit to keeping the Tories out of minority power.

 

[Brennan]

Why though?

Because those who oppose Tory rule tend to be far more vociferous and objectionable than those who oppose Labour rule. This thread has ample evidence of that.

And that's an observation, not a criticism, before anybody starts piping up.

 

[Brennan]

I used the Guardian average of polls which looks at all polls including constituency level polling, national and English regional polling and national level polling.

The Guardian’s average of polls aims to best represent a snapshot of the polls as they stand. The model aims to translate what polling figures would mean in terms of seats if an election were to take place today (and, of course, if the polls were right).

At 22:00 on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit pollcompleted by GfK NOP and Ipsos MORI on behalf of the BBC, Sky and ITV news services was announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[85] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[86]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[87]because it was at odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. The actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor

Chickens. Hatched.