The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[roydo]

There are postal ballots these days!

Oh yeah.

*think before speaking ffs*

 

[davek]

blimey

The big question remains how solid UKIP vote will be on the day. Margins are pretty fine and I can see some swingback to the Tories at the last minute. Also, the Tories are looking to make up losses to Labour with gains from LDs.

However, all that latter development would do would be to take from one party in the same potential coalition bloc and hand it to another.
This election is all about blocs of parties rather than largest single party.

All to play for.

Survation poll out in 15 minutes. That could be a good indicator. It went against Labour by 4 points last week. If Labour have regained ground it could be interesting on top of the Ashcroft data.

 

[daylightrobber]

The big question remains how solid UKIP vote will be on the day. Margins are pretty fine and I can see some swingback to the Tories at the last minute. Also, the Tories are looking to make up losses to Labour with gains from LDs.

However, all that latter development would do would be to take from one party in the same potential coalition bloc and hand it to another.
This election is all about blocs of parties rather than largest single party.

All to play for.

Survation poll out in 15 minutes. That could be a good indicator. It went against Labour by 4 points last week. If Labour have regained ground it could be interesting on top of the Ashcroft data.

Hope you've polished off your swingometer for next Thursday.

 

[peteblue]

The big question remains how solid UKIP vote will be on the day. Margins are pretty fine and I can see some swingback to the Tories at the last minute. Also, the Tories are looking to make up losses to Labour with gains from LDs.

However, all that latter development would do would be to take from one party in the same potential coalition bloc and hand it to another.
This election is all about blocs of parties rather than largest single party.

All to play for.

Survation poll out in 15 minutes. That could be a good indicator. It went against Labour by 4 points last week. If Labour have regained ground it could be interesting on top of the Ashcroft data.

The bookies odds are moving towards the Tories day by day.......

 

[daylightrobber]

The bookies odds are moving towards the Tories day by day.......

That's because there are more tories who can afford to waste their money betting on the outcome of a general election ffs.

 

[1966efc]

BoJo in City of Chester this week. Tory majority of 2,500 ish. Labour have eleven point lead.

 

[hullefc]

Cabinet minister accepted donation from corporate spy

Police monitored political activities of candidate standing against Nigel Farage

Seems like democracy is sound as a pound.

 

[hullefc]

Cameron vows not to slash child benefit

Call me Dave has changed his tune since last night. Now he is saying the Tories will not cut child benefit. Cameron will forget this if he gets to No 10, just as he forgot which team he supports.

 

[davek]

The bookies odds are moving towards the Tories day by day.......

I think the bookies have it right on current data: Tories largest Party odds on; Miliband odds on to be Prime Minister.

I still think there's a good few dont knows to go back to the Tories though and that they'll end up with a bloc of the LDs plus the crazy right wingers (or should that be crazier right wingers).

In any case, it's heading for an utter mess.

 

[davek]

Survation/Mirror poll:

CON 33 (=)
LAB 34 (+4)
LIB 9 (=)
UKIP 16 (-2)
GRN 3 (-1)

Labour recovering in that one from 4 points down last week.

If YouGov goes Labour way tonight too, they'll have had a very good set of opinions to ponder.

 

[Clint Planet]

Ladies and gentlemen of GrandOldTeam togger forum,

Wishing you a splendidly fulfilling and restful long weekend, should you be one of the many millions of us who are able to spend quality time with loved ones over the next three days. Yes, it's another Bank Holiday Weekend brought to you by the Trade Union Movement of great Britain in association with the Labour Party, the same people who brought you:

• the five day week
• holiday pay
• statutory sick pay
• maternity leave
• free healthcare
• social security
• industrial tribunals

...and much, much more!

Have a great weekend, folks, and don't forget any of this when you go to vote on Thursday!

(NB: any rubbish weather is entirely the fault of big business and its disgraceful position on climate change)

 

[Clint Planet]

Before the election the Tories kept spouting, 'we have created 2 and a half million 'new' private sector jobs'. These included those that were previously classed as public sector jobs. Half a million were in education, Further Education and Sixth form lectures, Free School teachers, TA support staff, cleaners, caretakers etc. reclassified during the 'building schools for the future' programme. Then there were another half a million health jobs that were done by the NHS but were taken over by the private sector by 'contracting out' to the private companies.

Then there were the probation service, again, 'contracted out', social workers, custom and immigration officers, tax collection, and the 170 000 post office workers are now classed as 'new' private sector jobs. Add on Royal bank of Scotland and Lloyds bank employees that were classed as 'new' private sector jobs, another half million. Add another half million for public and government administration jobs that have been outsourced to the private sector.

Close to 2 million jobs have been reclassified from the public sector to the private sector. That is why there has been nearly no 'increase' in productivity that you would expect if there were 2 and half million 'new' private sector jobs. And there has been no great increase in taxation taken. Again due to the jobs already being done but now reclassified and zero hours contracts.

There has been 'new' private sector jobs and a large chunk has revolved around East European and other migrates to the UK opening up shops, hairdressing, barbers, deliveries, building, agency workers etc.. The amount of Polish and other East European HGV's coming through the Port of Hull has shot up. Immigrants have boosted the UK economy in a number of ways and in particular, adding to 'record' number being employed.

Great post. Shifty gets.

 

[neil999]

The big question remains how solid UKIP vote will be on the day. Margins are pretty fine and I can see some swingback to the Tories at the last minute. Also, the Tories are looking to make up losses to Labour with gains from LDs.

However, all that latter development would do would be to take from one party in the same potential coalition bloc and hand it to another.
This election is all about blocs of parties rather than largest single party.

All to play for.

Survation poll out in 15 minutes. That could be a good indicator. It went against Labour by 4 points last week. If Labour have regained ground it could be interesting on top of the Ashcroft data.

I think ukip voters are gonna go back to tory big time, they are idiots and will buy into the 'labour is gonna wreck everything spin'

 

[edge]

Cameron vows not to slash child benefit

Call me Dave has changed his tune since last night. Now he is saying the Tories will not cut child benefit. Cameron will forget this if he gets to No 10, just as he forgot which team he supports.

so he has ruled that out , income tax, NI rise he is boxing himself into a corner, got to be a rise in vat or some very big cuts in benefits to get the missing billions, or is he just bare faced liar?

 

[davek]

I think ukip voters are gonna go back to tory big time, they are idiots and will buy into the 'labour is gonna wreck everything spin'

Depends what you mean by big time. It'd only take the UKIP polling average to slip a couple of % from say 13% to 11% for that to bring a lot of seats the Tories way. Still not enough for overall majority, but maybe put them back in with LDs.

I'm not sure that's realistic, tbh. I think they'll get some returning from UKIP, for sure. But it's not a flaky vote now in an election when the multi-party nature of our ballots has been underlined. A UKIP supporter in the past might say "what's the point, we wont get in, I'll vote Tory"; now they're likely to think "if we get a few MPs the Tories will need them for a coalition of some sort and we can keep them honest on Europe promises".