The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[1966efc]

Dont think for one minute that he will not put it in one of his Queens Speeches, assuming he gets to do them that is, just whether he;

a. Needs to put it in his first, and/or

b. He has the stones to do so if he has to.

The Coalition decided there should be no decision till 2016 in October 2010.

 

[roydo]

The Coalition decided there should be no decision till 2016 in October 2010.

Fair enough. So Ed can legitimately swerve it till next Parliament then?

Not making a point btw, genuinely curious.

 

[1966efc]

Sure. If he were to bring it forward as some kind of political "macho" thang, there'd be various naval bods accusing him of precipitate action without the benefit of the study currently being done to assess the "correct" number of boats & warheads.

 

[roydo]

Sure. If he were to bring it forward as some kind of political "macho" thang, there'd be various naval bods accusing him of precipitate action without the benefit of the study currently being done to assess the "correct" number of boats & warheads.

Cool. Thanks mate.

I would prefer a year or so of a stablish administration, even one I might not particularly like that much, rather than the mucking about if he had to put it in from day one.

 

[Tubey]

In case anyone missed the guy representing the 'youth'.

What a total muppet.

 

[summerisle]

Ashcroft marginal polls out. Labour looking like they could take seats way down on their hit list (50th, 68th, 79th), which is obviously bad news for the Tories. Marginals in total show a 5% swing from CON to LAB that could see Labour over the line if repeated across the board.

Hopefully my MP will be kicked out but it's looking closer now.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/general-election-2015-esther-mcvey-9166991

 

[Clint Planet]

David Cameron refused to answer specifically how many families were receiving more than £50,000 per annum in housing benefits.

David, in case you're looking in the answer was 160 (from the Department of Work and Pensions)

However in the last 3 years more than 50,000 families have been forced to move from inner London to outer London or beyond as a result of benefit changes and higher rates.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-welfare-cuts-and-soaring-rents-10213854.html

Seriously. Talk about demonising the poor.

And yet some people still contend that the Tories are not contemptuous of the poorest and most vulnerable in society. How much evidence do you need?

 

[daylightrobber]

so he has ruled that out , income tax, NI rise he is boxing himself into a corner, got to be a rise in vat or some very big cuts in benefits to get the missing billions, or is he just bare faced liar?

Do you really need to ask?

 

[edge]

Cameron just on look north asked about cutting 58% of Liverpools bujet since they have been in power, his answer well take manchester ? the slippery snake made no attempt to answer the question or were his cuts are going to come from.

 

[chewee]

Ashcroft marginal polls out. Labour looking like they could take seats way down on their hit list (50th, 68th, 79th), which is obviously bad news for the Tories. Marginals in total show a 5% swing from CON to LAB that could see Labour over the line if repeated across the board.

Pudsey (which on Ashcroft polls today just about show the Tories ahead) before turnout filter and don't know reallocation actually had Labour ahead.

As for the bookies odds pay no attention, out of the 10 marginals from Ashcroft today the bookies only had 4/10 odds favourites. Traditionally punters always overstate how well the Tories are doing. In 2010 the spread markets predicted a 100 seat tory lead, true figure was only 49. Mike Smithson of political betting on Twitter is a great follow - very well informed on markets and market history.

 

[bluelife]

Could we reset the poll by any chance to get a more up to date view?

 

[davek]

Hopefully my MP will be kicked out but it's looking closer now.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/general-election-2015-esther-mcvey-9166991

I think she's doomed mate. Take a look the unweighted figures pages 5/6 here (dont knows taken out)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Wirral-West-April-2015.HST-Full-tables.pdf
...then look at how many are definite to vote (83%).

Tells you all you need to know. She wont turn that round in a few days.

 

[Clint Planet]

blimey

Aye. Any idea how Everton are getting on?

 

[chewee]

I think she's doomed mate. Take a look the unweighted figures pages 5/6 here (dont knows taken out)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Wirral-West-April-2015.HST-Full-tables.pdf
...then look at how many are definite to vote (83%).

Tells you all you need to know. She wont turn that round in a few days.

The poll also has a couple of % for The Greens who do not have a candidate there. Pretty sure when those see the ballot paper they'll favour Lab over Cons.

 

[davek]

The poll also has a couple of % for The Greens who do not have a candidate there. Pretty sure when those see the ballot paper they'll favour Lab over Cons.

Yep.

The Green campaign has been a bit of a dud. That's probably helped Labour nationally too. I dont think the leader looked up to the job of getting across to swing voters.