The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[chewee]

He's right about one thing: Tories outperform polls. Have done since God was a lad.

Not true, in 2010 pollsters in the weeks running up to the election had cons lead over Labour bigger than it turned out to be. However the last few polls before polling day were on the money.

Like I have been saying the balance of power could shift dramatically if Clegg loses his seat. Lib Dem grandees like Ashdown and Cable have been pretty open about a Lab/Lib deal.

 

[Mrk]

Not true, in 2010 pollsters in the weeks running up to the election had cons lead over Labour bigger than it turned out to be. However the last few polls before polling day were on the money.

Like I have been saying the balance of power could shift dramatically if Clegg loses his seat. Lib Dem grandees like Ashdown and Cable have been pretty open about a Lab/Lib deal.

2010 was a bit of an anomaly to be fair:

 

[chewee]

2010 was a bit of an anomaly to be fair:

Worrying but another factor unlike previous elections is the shy UKIP vote. Difference between online & phone polls is evidence of this, viewing the various polls UKIPs vote share drops significantly via phone. Those intending to vote UKIP it can be argued are not as comfortable freely confirming this to someone as opposed to online.

 

[chewee]

Given how big of a majority Labour had in 97 i'm surprised at those figures.

 

[Walken]

Straw man fallacy

No thanks.

if by that you mean a comparison that points out how ludicrous your argument is

 

[ToffeeDoug]

2010 was a bit of an anomaly to be fair:

Good stuff; people forget how badly the LD's did at the last election, dropping from 62 to 57 MPs. Because Clegg had done well in the debates, some thought they would be increasing their tally, not losing some.

 

[1966efc]

There'll always be an exception that proves the rule.

In this case, if Peter Kellner shrugs his shoulders and says publicly on two occasions, "Who knows," then you'd have to say it's all bloody guesswork & blather.

 

[Eggs]

........it amazes me how come the election the Tory's reach out to the masses after looking after the few.

 

[peteblue]

........it amazes me how come the election the Tory's reach out to the masses after looking after the few.

Well quite a few voted for them last time.....

Popular vote 2010

Conservative 10,703,654

Labour 8,606,517

Libdem 6,836,248

 

[Jxg]

if by that you mean a comparison that points out how ludicrous your argument is

No, I mean a straw man fallacy. You seem to lack understanding of the topic. Here's the very first link from Google:

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman

Now, the mods are being very nice in allowing political discussion. The next step from a straw man is, instead of attacking my argument, attacking me. You're getting very close to that point with your aggressive posts (and negging my last one, does anyone really care about rep like?). Please contain yourself because the arguments that sprout from these kinds of discussions are what prevented them in the first place.

 

[daylightrobber]

Well quite a few voted for them last time.....

Popular vote 2010

Conservative 10,703,654

Labour 8,606,517

Libdem 6,836,248

That's a bit like 10.6m Turkeys voting for Christmas.

 

[Jxg]

What on earth are the huff doing publishing that crock of bull?

I'd imagine they're trying to be fair and a little less biased by displaying articles from both sides of the coin - the "look past Milibands many, many, many flaws and vote Labour" side and the "Miliband has many, many, many flaws so don't vote Labour" side.

 

[peteblue]

That's a bit like 10.6m Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Still 2 Million more than for Labour........and of course they have now been pretty well wiped out in the peoples republic of Scotland...........be surprised if they get 7 Million in total this year..........

 

[Eggs]

Well quite a few voted for them last time.....

Popular vote 2010

Conservative 10,703,654

Labour 8,606,517

Libdem 6,836,248

...hopefully they will know better this time.

 

[ToffeeDoug]

...hopefully they will know better this time.

I think Gordon Brown alone cost Labour 500,000 votes at the last election. The big question now is whether these voters trust Labour's economic policy enough to come back into the fold.