The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[bluemangroup]

It's the Bollinger Bolsheviks that'll win it for the worker.

Frosty Jacks is the opiate of the masses mate.

 

[1966efc]

Frosty Jacks is the opiate of the masses mate.

Can they be purchased in Harrods?

 

[1966efc]

On a more depressing note, looked at the welfare provisions of the 1910 Liberal government and the '42 Beveridge Report.

Plus ca change ...

 

[Mrk]

Survation/MoS: LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%

Continuing the trend of utter confusion.

 

[Mrk]

Oh and now YouGov:

CON 34%; LAB 33%; UKIP 13%; LD 8%; GRE 5%

*scratches head*

 

[summerisle]

Are those the props for some sort of Vaudeville act?

Pay your tanner like everybody else

 

[davek]

Survation looks a bit high for UKIP and low for Tories. Outlier?

YouGov looks par for the course with LAB/TORIES swapping 1 point leads.

If it stays like this and the marginals swing the way they are said to be going then Miliband will be PM next Fruday.

 

[Mrk]

Survation looks a bit high for UKIP and low for Tories. Outlier?

YouGov looks par for the course with LAB/TORIES swapping 1 point leads.

If it stays like this and the marginals swing the way they are said to be going then Miliband will be PM next Fruday.

Yep, 17% for UKIP seems unrealistically high.

As for marginals, this is interesting: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/0...-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

 

[daylightrobber]

Not the point I was making. I want privacy etc etc etc, but the thought of politicians being able to control what the press can and cant write about will only lead to a neutered "free" press.

No thanks.

I agree, but the press hasn't exactly covered itself in glory over the last few years.

The biggie is the fact that one individual with specific views can currently control such a large proportion of this nation's press. It is not healthy for democracy. I can see why Labour want change, and it's obvious why the likes of Murdoch don't.

 

[summerisle]

I agree, but the press hasn't exactly covered itself in glory over the last few years.

The biggie is the fact that one individual with specific views can currently control such a large proportion of this nation's press. It is not healthy for democracy. I can see why Labour want change, and it's obvious why the likes of Murdoch don't.

Expenses scandal ?

 

[davek]

Yep, 17% for UKIP seems unrealistically high.

As for marginals, this is interesting: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/0...-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

Sounds a bit of a stretch...."Miliband went to see Brand = Labour are behind in postal ballots"...from 'internal source'.

Pfffft

 

[davek]

@the esk:

"Peter Kellner's new seats projection: Con 283 Lab 261 SNP 50 LD 32 UKIP 2 Green 1
Lab lose 36 in Scotland and gain 39 elsewhere"

That's a big change of tune by YouGov head that contradicts his own agencies seat forecasting system. Looks very high for the LDs.

With DUPs 9 or 10 seats that gives the centre-right bloc 314/315.

 

[Jxg]

Yep, 17% for UKIP seems unrealistically high.

As for marginals, this is interesting: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/0...-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

I'd disagree.

I think UKIP and, to some extent, the Conservatives will get more votes than the polls are predicting. A lot of people seem to be quiet about their voting intentions if they do intend to vote for UKIP because they feel they'll be ostracised by people.

Conversely, The Green Party is going to get a significantly lower turnout than they're being predicted. You'll find that the people who support them are much more likely to shout about it, skewing their predictions a fair bit.

 

[Mrk]

Sounds a bit of a stretch...."Miliband went to see Brand = Labour are behind in postal ballots"...from 'internal source'.

Pfffft

I think the way they've stretched the story to include the Brand nonsense is a bit far-fetched, but as it says, all parties do count postal ballots so it is possible to get a general idea of how far behind/ahead they are.

 

[davek]

I think the way they've stretched the story to include the Brand nonsense is a bit far-fetched, but as it says, all parties do count postal ballots so it is possible to get a general idea of how far behind/ahead they are.

Tbf, I'd expect the older demographic of postal ballots to reflect a Tory bias. So maybe that's what's being seen?

It is getting very tight now though.

Bollocks to all the pollsters, I've said all along it'll end up a dogs breakfast of right wing parties getting Cameron just over the line and it's heading that way!

One things for sure, it's a mess of an election and it won't be the only one we have this year, IMO.