The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[Clint Planet]

@the esk:

"Peter Kellner's new seats projection: Con 283 Lab 261 SNP 50 LD 32 UKIP 2 Green 1
Lab lose 36 in Scotland and gain 39 elsewhere"

That's a big change of tune by YouGov head that contradicts his own agencies seat forecasting system. Looks very high for the LDs.

With DUPs 9 or 10 seats that gives the centre-right bloc 314/315.

Hand grenade into room!

 

[daylightrobber]

Tbf, I'd expect the older demographic of postal ballots to reflect a Tory bias. So maybe that's what's being seen?

It is getting very tight now though.

Bollocks to all the pollsters, I've said all along it'll end up a dogs breakfast of right wing parties getting Cameron just over the line and it's heading that way!

One things for sure, it's a mess of an election and it won't be the only one we have this year, IMO.

Traditionally there has always been a heavy Tory bias in postal votes. More pensioners than any other demographic vote by post. Retirees living abroad I'd guess

 

[davek]

Hand grenade into room!

I hope Kellners wrong and it's a clear progressive bloc win. Can't see it though.

No clear winner. Soft arse Cameron will be a man haunted in office now struggling to get anything passed...busing in ill people to try and fend of parliamentary defeats.

It'll be hilarious.

 

[davek]

Traditionally there has always been a heavy Tory bias in postal votes. More pensioners than any other demographic vote by post. Retirees living abroad I'd guess

Yep.

That story looked rubbish anyway, tbh. Some idiot looking to get a load of attention.

 

[Joey66]

Yep.

That story looked rubbish anyway, tbh. Some idiot looking to get a load of attention.

Just looked up poll of polls and it's still neck and neck

 

[The Esk]

@the esk:

"Peter Kellner's new seats projection: Con 283 Lab 261 SNP 50 LD 32 UKIP 2 Green 1
Lab lose 36 in Scotland and gain 39 elsewhere"

That's a big change of tune by YouGov head that contradicts his own agencies seat forecasting system. Looks very high for the LDs.

With DUPs 9 or 10 seats that gives the centre-right bloc 314/315.

Interesting!

Guardian poll projection looks slightly better for Labour than in previous days

Lab/SNP combined seats 325 (+2)
Con/LD combined seats 300 (-2)

 

[daylightrobber]

Just saw the "career defining" comment by Cameron.

Oh dear

According to the beeb he's come out today and stated it was intentional.

 

[davek]

Interesting!

Guardian poll projection looks slightly better for Labour than in previous days

Lab/SNP combined seats 325 (+2)
Con/LD combined seats 300 (-2)

I think we're now in the territory of pollsters and forecasters starting to converge so they can all be right or wrong together!

Just going back to Kellner: I can't accept the LDs are getting 32 seats. No chance, IMO. I'd say less that as all the polls have them pretty low in marginals and their GB polling is hopeless. If there's movement to the Tories by their former supporters it makes no differences as they are in the same team/bloc; if it breaks to labour it could see the Tory led bloc struggling to get 310.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Mrk]

As we're unlikely to see any majority government for (at least) a few months, this is a good watch. Shows how hard it can be to keep a government without a majority in power on a daily basis:

 

[davek]

As we're unlikely to see any majority government for (at least) a few months, this is a good watch. Shows how hard it can be to keep a government without a majority in power on a daily basis:

Yep. That's the territory we're (currently) heading into.

Messy.

 

[Joey66]

According to the beeb he's come out today and stated it was intentional.

Just like that business women on questioning EM supposed to be a voter she evidently gave the thumbs up to George Osborne afterwards - yet she signed support of her small business the day before on that 500 small business list to support the Tories? Then went to work giving high fives with all her employees!
Yes a very balanced BBC once again!

 

[glorydaze]

Just like that business women on questioning EM supposed to be a voter she evidently gave the thumbs up to George Osborne afterwards - yet she signed support of her small business the day before on that 500 small business list to support the Tories? Then went to work giving high fives with all her employees!
Yes a very balanced BBC once again!

In politics nobody has a balanced opinion I feel.

 

[Mrk]

Yep. That's the territory we're (currently) heading into.

Messy.

Messy, but exciting.

 

[peteblue]

Interesting!

Guardian poll projection looks slightly better for Labour than in previous days

Lab/SNP combined seats 325 (+2)
Con/LD combined seats 300 (-2)

 

[peteblue]

According to the beeb he's come out today and stated it was intentional.

You saying he's gay.........