The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[daylightrobber]

Don't confuse politics with business, one is concerned with tonights news, the other with strategic growth......

With your attitude of profits before people, it was an easy mistake to make.

 

[peteblue]

Even under that forecast (and Electoral Forecast weight against the LP) the centre-right/extreme right bloc doesn't get them the numbers for a win. Tory+LD+DUP = 316. The Centre-left bloc can make the maths work though: LP+SNP+SDLP+Plaid+Green = 326.

Still all on a knife edge and can go either way between that scenario above and one where either the Tories or LDs perform better than Electoral Forecast suggest and drag a few more seats out and that bloc they head over the line.

Looking at the odds on the betting, they continue to slowly move towards a Tory Coalition.........

 

[peteblue]

With your attitude of profits before people, it was an easy mistake to make.

Nobody mentioned profits......

 

[Mrk]

Looking at the odds on the betting, they continue to slowly move towards a Tory Coalition.........

Doesn't really mean much. Just people making uneducated guesses.

 

[The Esk]

Looking at the odds on the betting, they continue to slowly move towards a Tory Coalition.........

I'll take your money on that any time...

 

[davek]

Looking at the odds on the betting, they continue to slowly move towards a Tory Coalition.........

We've been through this the other day: overall majority and government is different to majority party. That's why the Tories are favourite: to get most seats...not to get an outright win - Labour minority government is still the favourite last time I looked.

Besides all this the bookies are just looking to draw clueless mugs in to part with their money - maybe you should back the Tories to win?

 

[davek]

YouGov poll (04 – 05 May):
CON – 34% (+1)
LAB – 34% (+1)
UKIP – 12% (-)
LDEM – 9% (-1)
GRN – 5% (-)


BMG

CON 34
LAB 34
LD 10
UKIP 12
GRN 4

ComRes

Con 35% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 9% (+1)
UKIP 14% (+1)
Green 4% (-3)

 

[Groucho]

Looking at the odds on the betting, they continue to slowly move towards a Tory Coalition.........

All bookies do is quote prices that reflect betting trends.

Doesn't mean anything is a given. In fact I'd say more people are likely to bet than actually vote, so can betting trends be taken as a true reflection? I'd say not.

 

[peteblue]

We've been through this the other day: overall majority and government is different to majority party. That's why the Tories are favourite: to get most seats...not to get an outright win - Labour minority government is still the favourite last time I looked.

Besides all this the bookies are just looking to draw clueless mugs in to part with their money - maybe you should back the Tories to win?

I don't gamble, never have. My point though was about the trend. For all categories on the oddschecker, the trend has been moving daily towards a Tory Coalition, which either reflects risk or the amount of money placed.....

 

[peteblue]

YouGov poll (04 – 05 May):
CON – 34% (+1)
LAB – 34% (+1)
UKIP – 12% (-)
LDEM – 9% (-1)
GRN – 5% (-)


BMG

CON 34
LAB 34
LD 10
UKIP 12
GRN 4

ComRes

Con 35% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 9% (+1)
UKIP 14% (+1)
Green 4% (-3)

Isn't it amazing how UKIP will get about 3 times the number of votes of the SNP and about 49 less MP's........

 

[daylightrobber]

Nobody mentioned profits......

I did. It's a turn of phrase. You seem happy to remove the human element, that people are really suffering from any argument. You don't acknowledge that Tory policies deprive the poor, oppress the weak and further handicap the disabled. All you see is a necessity to manage national finances in a manner which will protect the wealth of those who are financially profiting from the genuine misery of others.

 

[peteblue]

I did. It's a turn of phrase. You seem happy to remove the human element, that people are really suffering from any argument. You don't acknowledge that Tory policies deprive the poor, oppress the weak and further handicap the disabled. All you see is a necessity to manage national finances in a manner which will protect the wealth of those who are financially profiting from the genuine misery of others.

You missed my point completely, stop jumping to Incorrect conclusions.......

 

[davek]

I don't gamble, never have. My point though was about the trend. For all categories on the oddschecker, the trend has been moving daily towards a Tory Coalition, which either reflects risk or the amount of money placed.....

It reflects what the polls are showing regarding a LD party gaining a couple of points. The leap is made that this is good for a Tory/LD coalition...but only if a) the LDs want that (and not just Clegg); b ) the numbers add up to power (they dont); Labour wont do a deal with the various nationalists including the SNP (they will).

At the moment that Tory/LD bet looks a come on to the mugs by bookies who'll be pissing themselves taking the cash off them.

 

[peteblue]

What's he done to be head and shoulders above anyone? Crashed the economy into recession after being handed one with 3 successive quarters of growth before taking his foot off the accelerator just short of the car going over the cliff?

Bravo.

Whatever happened to that double/triple dip the Balls was hoping for.......

 

[peteblue]

It reflects what the polls are showing regarding a LD party gaining a couple of points. The leap is made that this is good for a Tory/LD coalition...but only if a) the LDs want that (and not just Clegg); b ) the numbers add up to power (they dont); Labour wont do a deal with the various nationalists including the SNP (they will).

At the moment that Tory/LD bet looks a come on to the mugs by bookies who'll be pissing themselves taking the cash off them.

I was listening to Clegg on the radio while driving earlier today, he sounded like a man who believes that the Tories will get the most MP's and that he is insistent on doing a deal with them.......might be wrong though......