The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[The Esk]

I was listening to Clegg on the radio while driving earlier today, he sounded like a man who believes that the Tories will get the most MP's and that he is insistent on doing a deal with them.......might be wrong though......

Because he's talking his own book. How can he flip/flop after an election?

 

[chewee]

All bookies do is quote prices that reflect betting trends.

Doesn't mean anything is a given. In fact I'd say more people are likely to bet than actually vote, so can betting trends be taken as a true reflection? I'd say not.

Another key point: Conservatives generally tend to be more well off (sweeping generalisation I know) which will have an impact. The casual backers having a few quid on what they hope will win rather than studying endless polls in theory should see larger amounts of money going on the Tories. It's all down to disposable income.

On election night 2010 AFTER the exit poll I got evens on a hung parliament. If you are quick on election night I think the spread markets / band betting could be very profitable. Of course exit polls aren't 100% as 1992 showed but since then methodology has changed and results have improved greatly.

Interesting that 3% tory lead ComRes / ITN poll has a seat projection with Lab and SNP having 327 seats. The Conservatives need at least a 4% lead to be in the driving seat. Another key point the Ashcroft and ComRes polls today showing 2/3% tory leads have both been phone polls the rest have been online so this election will settle once and for all which method is more accurate.

 

[davek]

I was listening to Clegg on the radio while driving earlier today, he sounded like a man who believes that the Tories will get the most MP's and that he is insistent on doing a deal with them.......might be wrong though......

He will. My point is that he has to take his party along with him...and those two other factors I mention.

As said: Tory/LD coalition is not a sensible bet at this stage.

 

[peteblue]

Because he's talking his own book. How can he flip/flop after an election?

Well we all know what a lying, devious, self-serving bunch of cretins they all are..........

 

[The Esk]

So much misinformation on popular media - here's what will happen post Thursday:

It is very clear from the processes within the Cabinet Manual what should happen in the event of a single party not having an overall majority.

Firstly the continuation rule is applied, i.e. the previous incumbent is entitled to see if he/she can command the confidence of the house.

In the event of that not being possible the incumbent resigns and the Queen will "invite the person who appears most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House to serve as Prime Minister and to form a government”. This is the gravitational principle, according to which the person mostly likely to succeed at the task is entrusted with forming the government.

Nowhere does it state that this person must have the largest number of seats in the House (the plurality principle), only that he/she can command the confidence of the House.

This principle has been in force since the mid 19th century

There is an alternative principle that was last used in 1924 when removing Baldwin's Government. This is when the party deemed responsible for stopping the previous incumbents from regaining power is asked to form a Government and is known as the fault principle. Following the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act of 2011 this may well be used in asking Labour to form a minority Government with the confidence of the House.

 

[peteblue]

He will. My point is that he has to take his party along with him...and those two other factors I mention.

As said: Tory/LD coalition is not a sensible bet at this stage.

Well the LibDems have now worked with the Tories so probably understand them better than Labour. The numbers will be what the numbers will be, and I agree that Miliband will do a deal with the SNP and the others Nats even though he's too frightened to say so......

 

[Seanjd]

Isn't it amazing how UKIP will get about 3 times the number of votes of the SNP and about 49 less MP's........

They are the quirks of our electoral system I suppose. They all know how it works though. What's been stopping UKIP taking loads if seats in Scotland?

 

[davek]

So much misinformation on popular media - here's what will happen post Thursday:

It is very clear from the processes within the Cabinet Manual what should happen in the event of a single party not having an overall majority.

Firstly the continuation rule is applied, i.e. the previous incumbent is entitled to see if he/she can command the confidence of the house.

In the event of that not being possible the incumbent resigns and the Queen will "invite the person who appears most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House to serve as Prime Minister and to form a government”. This is the gravitational principle, according to which the person mostly likely to succeed at the task is entrusted with forming the government.

Nowhere does it state that this person must have the largest number of seats in the House (the plurality principle), only that he/she can command the confidence of the House.

This principle has been in force since the mid 19th century

There is an alternative principle that was last used in 1924 when removing Baldwin's Government. This is when the party deemed responsible for stopping the previous incumbents from regaining power is asked to form a Government and is known as the fault principle. Following the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act of 2011 this may well be used in asking Labour to form a minority Government with the confidence of the House.

The only illegitimate government will be the one who cant get the numbers to govern.

It's like running a team cross country race and not giving one team the trophy because they only came 2nd, 3rd and 4th and didn't include the winner.

It's nuts, and what Owen Jones rightly described today as a vary British coup. The only way that form of daylight robbery would get through is if some LP grandees (like in 2010) called it as 'bad form' sticking it out to pick up the rightful prize.

 

[Seanjd]

Well the LibDems have now worked with the Tories so probably understand them better than Labour. The numbers will be what the numbers will be, and I agree that Miliband will do a deal with the SNP and the others Nats even though he's too frightened to say so......

But what do you mean by 'deal'?

 

[peteblue]

So much misinformation on popular media - here's what will happen post Thursday:

It is very clear from the processes within the Cabinet Manual what should happen in the event of a single party not having an overall majority.

Firstly the continuation rule is applied, i.e. the previous incumbent is entitled to see if he/she can command the confidence of the house.

In the event of that not being possible the incumbent resigns and the Queen will "invite the person who appears most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House to serve as Prime Minister and to form a government”. This is the gravitational principle, according to which the person mostly likely to succeed at the task is entrusted with forming the government.

Nowhere does it state that this person must have the largest number of seats in the House (the plurality principle), only that he/she can command the confidence of the House.

This principle has been in force since the mid 19th century

There is an alternative principle that was last used in 1924 when removing Baldwin's Government. This is when the party deemed responsible for stopping the previous incumbents from regaining power is asked to form a Government and is known as the fault principle. Following the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act of 2011 this may well be used in asking Labour to form a minority Government with the confidence of the House.

And very sensible rules too. Of course last time the incumbent did not possess the majority of MP's but still tried to do deals. The LibDems very sensibly said no chance. So Cameron will have first dibs of forming a government and will in all likelihood also have the most MP's, so it's not until he has tried every avenue before Ed will get a shot, and then of course the SNP demands roll in and if not agreed to then the SNP can say get stuffed and Ed won't be able to form a government either so the existing Government stays in place, even if various individuals have been voted out they get to remain in office.......what a devious system.........

 

[peteblue]

But what do you mean by 'deal'?

He will cave in to their demands.......

 

[davek]

Well the LibDems have now worked with the Tories so probably understand them better than Labour. The numbers will be what the numbers will be, and I agree that Miliband will do a deal with the SNP and the others Nats even though he's too frightened to say so......

It'll be interesting to see if Alexander and a few of the other LD neo-liberal orange bookers gets their seats taken from them. It could well be the parliamentary LD group are a bit less willing to do business with Cameron this time.

All moot at the moment though as the Tories/LD are miles off having the capability to take power. As said, they'll need the help of a terrorist front organisation from N.I. to help them and even then they cant do it...presently.

 

[peteblue]

The only illegitimate government will be the one who cant get the numbers to govern.

It's like running a team cross country race and not giving one team the trophy because they only came 2nd, 3rd and 4th and didn't include the winner.

It's nuts, and what Owen Jones rightly described today as a vary British coup. The only way that form of daylight robbery would get through is if some LP grandees (like in 2010) called it as 'bad form' sticking it out to pick up the rightful prize.

The RS used similar arguments when they came 5th........

 

[Seanjd]

He will cave in to their demands.......

He doesn't need to cave over any demands. This has been discussed at length on here and I thought it was made clear. They don't need any formal agreement together. Miliband knows that the SNP will back up Labour's policies because not only are they broadly in line with each other, they are anti Tory. No dancing to Sturgeons tunes, hate to break it to you.

 

[daylightrobber]

And very sensible rules too. Of course last time the incumbent did not possess the majority of MP's but still tried to do deals. The LibDems very sensibly said no chance. So Cameron will have first dibs of forming a government and will in all likelihood also have the most MP's, so it's not until he has tried every avenue before Ed will get a shot, and then of course the SNP demands roll in and if not agreed to then the SNP can say get stuffed and Ed won't be able to form a government either so the existing Government stays in place, even if various individuals have been voted out they get to remain in office.......what a devious system.........

The only avenue the Tories have will be a Coalition that can win confidence of the house. If they don't get this they have to offer the opportunity to all other parties to form government. Labour have the full range of options - coalition, supply & confidence or vote by vote available to them and could govern with any one of the three.