I think you are probably right. But retaining unstoppable Bairstow is a terrible mistake.I'm sorry but no, stokes is not a number 3, he is doing just fine where he is.
Most likely thing to happen is they will swap out Robinson for Anderson and put Ali or JB at 3, too risky to bring in a county player for two must win matches to bat in a very important position against a world class attack. They will back JB like they have consistently backed Crawley.