The EU deal

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Cypher said:
Because the EU does work for the self interests of it's corporations over all else. Normally that's something I have a problem with but in this case it will also mean there won't be this game of tariff chicken that you think will happen.
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It'll be like stepping out of the ERM all over again, we will be free of the shackles of EU bureaucracy, with a competitive currency and a will to compete........the EU doesn't need another competitor but it will seal it's own fate because it knows no other way........
 

Hibbertinho said:
Sorry, I'm not really any clearer from any of that, in terms of what the main approach will be once we vote to leave? If it's going to be as easy as you say then I am both embarrassed for not yet grasping it and eager for you to outline the general strategy, for once we leave.

Please don't think I was suggesting that there would be no trade with EU members - that would be silly. I'm merely interested in the ease at which we will immediately (I'm sure it's fine to assume so) 'renegotiate'...

Are you saying that we are going to attempt to maintain some degree of access to the single market, i.e. our biggest export market? If 'nothing changes', does that mean that we will maintain total access without having to renegotiate with each individual EU-27 member, and that it will happen straight away, without any contributions to the EU budget or accepting free movement of EU citizens?

To keep it simple (for me), let's concentrate on Germany then; how far will they go to offer us good terms of access to the common market? What political logic would make them want to give us as favourable terms as before? It earns 3% of its GDP from export to the UK (as much as it does to its immediate neighbours, Poland + Czech Republic, combined) - its import of UK goods amount to less than half that value.

Of course, this is just concerning goods here - what about regulations for services? Would London's dominance be preserved as a financial centre with euro-denominated finance, or would it be treated as 'offshore'?

I'm just really keen to understand so that I can get on board.
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daylightrobber said:
If a deal isn't in place within 2 years of notification to leave the EU, then the rules of trade laid down by the WTO come into play.
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Is it all about whats best for us. If you look at income distribution and the state of the ' underclass' here, who the hell are us? We have a broken society.
 
Cypher said:
They wouldn't want it to drag on. They would prefer if Brexit was as painless for both sides as possible. The only people who would want it to drag on are the people who think that would force Britain to change it's mind.
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Would they? Oh right.

Here's me thinking that the EU and the single currency had any kind of political capital invested in it.
 
Hibbertinho said:
Do they, aye? Everyone in the Bremain group? That's a shame.

I was more concerned with the 'simple' question of whether we would ultimately be better off or not.



Interest has been signalled in a second referendum on whether to accept the new terms in the case of Brexit, or to renege on the outcome of the first referendum. This has potential for entering a legal no-man's land with respect to Article 50 - it is unclear on how to withdraw from Brexit once it has been invoked.

Any of the the 27 can block the extension. In which case - we take the terms of the agreement which was drafted whilst we were partly not in the room for, or reject the deal in the hope of holding out for better terms (where have we seen that before?)... in this case we would either get the more favourable renegotiated terms that we've stuck our neck out for, or we would leave with no free-trade agreement.



In which case, @daylightrobber's suggestion would become a reality.
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I'm not saying we would get a favorable deal in the long term. We would make a deal that would suit both sides. In the meantime we would agree to continue albeit with no voice but given our limited voice that's not much of a concern.

It would neither be paradise or Armageddon. It just isn't a big reason to vote one way or the other.
 

Hibbertinho said:
Would they? Oh right.

Here's me thinking that the EU and the single currency had any kind of political capital invested in it.
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Yea but the EU industries have real capital invested which would require a deal to be made and real capital trumps political capital every time.
 
Hibbertinho said:
Do they, aye? Everyone in the Bremain group? That's a shame.

I was more concerned with the 'simple' question of whether we would ultimately be better off or not.



Interest has been signalled in a second referendum on whether to accept the new terms in the case of Brexit, or to renege on the outcome of the first referendum. This has potential for entering a legal no-man's land with respect to Article 50 - it is unclear on how to withdraw from Brexit once it has been invoked.

Any of the the 27 can block the extension. In which case - we take the terms of the agreement which was drafted whilst we were partly not in the room for, or reject the deal in the hope of holding out for better terms (where have we seen that before?)... in this case we would either get the more favourable renegotiated terms that we've stuck our neck out for, or we would leave with no free-trade agreement...



...in which case, @daylightrobber's suggestion would become a reality.
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You're right mate, I can't understand what we've all been thinking. The EU must be obeyed and no country can exist out of it's control.......Yet a lot of the countries not in the EU seem to get along OK and are not banging on the door asking for membership, so maybe, just maybe, the country with the 5th largest economy might just be able to as well......no, you're right, what was I thinking..........
 
Rob17896 said:
Is it all about whats best for us. If you look at income distribution and the state of the ' underclass' here, who the hell are us? We have a broken society.
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If we have a broken society then it would make sense to bring in millions from the poorest parts of Europe to fix it while keeping Uk workers out of a job........EU logic.......
 

peteblue said:
You're right mate, I can't understand what we've all been thinking. The EU must be obeyed and no country can exist out of it's control.......Yet a lot of the countries not in the EU seem to get along OK and are not banging on the door asking for membership, so maybe, just maybe, the country with the 5th largest economy might just be able to as well......no, you're right, what was I thinking..........
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I didn't say any of that, looks like you've gone a bit incoherent again there, mate. That's a shame you seemed really trustworthy in your assertions before.

Dya reckon globalisation and trade might work differently depending on where you are in the world, mate, which might explain why there are different trade agreements around the world where neighbouring countries stand to actually gain from them? And aren't there actually a few who are banging on the door, in the case where they are in proximity to benefit with free trade agreement with these EU trading partners?

Is our economy just something to whip out onto the table and compare with Germany's, or something? Are there more factors to an economy than just being 'big' and are they currently tied up in the EU membership we're proposing to pull the plug on?
 
Economically we will be the same if not better.

However, it is sad to see us in such a pitiful position as to be arguing our countries sovereignty away to a European super state because of 'economics'. If it is the choice between golden handcuffs or independence, I choose independence every time.
 
Rob17896 said:
Stay in and try to learn from Finland, Sweden etc. Not perfect but they TRY to be a society and include everyone.
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Watch how their generous benefits and welfare system will go the way of the dodo thanks to immigration. It's very easy to afford benefits when the vast majority are well educated and and in good paying jobs. It's a little more difficult when the % of poor uneducated people increase.
 
peteblue said:
If we have a broken society then it would make sense to bring in millions from the poorest parts of Europe to fix it while keeping Uk workers out of a job........EU logic.......
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Pete. The people who cant get a job here do not believe they can. Their parents have not worked and it becomes the norm. Then there are the goons who believe 'menial' tasks are not for them Work is work. People like the polish who work here are a brilliant example of people who get stuck in. Bosnians as well. Briiliant people and fantastic to deal with.
 

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