Minimeister
Player Valuation: £35m
Must admit it's great seeing the Tories use lies and propaganda against each other and not the public.
The EU deal
- Thread starter davek
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carlos21
KING OF REP
I agree with you on those points mate.
dandydan
Player Valuation: £40m
What's wrong with British brasses?
rascal
Player Valuation: £60m
Illegal mate
daylightrobber
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Gove should absolutely know better. Part of his brief as Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice is responsibility for EU and international business. As such he should be more than a little familiar with the Treaty of the European Union. An agreement which sets out the very foundation of how the 28 member states work and cooperate together, which was part written by the UK and which was part drafted by UK lawyers.
When the treaty was drawn up it was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create the "EU Common External Tariff Regime" for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs were put in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU didn't/doesn't desperately need and lower for the things it desperately does (e.g. energy for example - which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norway's exports to the EU is oil and gas).
If we were to tear up our membership card by leaving the EU, Article 50 of the Treaty comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU it is leaving will be terminating all membership agreements 24 months after notification. If this happens (potentially summer 2018) the UK will automatically operate under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to.
The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty. It just isn't feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit.
Meanwhile to be fair, we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. But it is widely acknowledged that this could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide).
The UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO guidelines) is automatic if we elect to leave and there is nothing that any one member state, or indeed the UK can do about it. Gove should be well aware of this fact, and as a minister with responsibility for EU business he is jeopardising the currently favourable terms we have. He's an idiot.
When the treaty was drawn up it was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create the "EU Common External Tariff Regime" for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs were put in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU didn't/doesn't desperately need and lower for the things it desperately does (e.g. energy for example - which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norway's exports to the EU is oil and gas).
If we were to tear up our membership card by leaving the EU, Article 50 of the Treaty comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU it is leaving will be terminating all membership agreements 24 months after notification. If this happens (potentially summer 2018) the UK will automatically operate under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to.
The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty. It just isn't feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit.
Meanwhile to be fair, we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. But it is widely acknowledged that this could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide).
The UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO guidelines) is automatic if we elect to leave and there is nothing that any one member state, or indeed the UK can do about it. Gove should be well aware of this fact, and as a minister with responsibility for EU business he is jeopardising the currently favourable terms we have. He's an idiot.
A common tool when attempting to forecast the future is to create a number of possible scenarios. I haven't seen a single analysis asking what other countries in Europe will do if we leave. Heck, I haven't even seen many asking what Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will do if we leave? You would imagine most would want to remain firmly in the EU. Would that create a unified Ireland, with all the issues around that? Huge things that barely seem to have required a moments consideration.
Will it make a blind bit of difference to Joe Public either way? The whole vote I mean,
I'd be insanely nervous if we vote to leave mate, and I'm very much a small government man. There may be a time to have this conversation, but now really isn't it.
Depends how you regard day to day slog I guess. In Southern Europe for instance, youth unemployment is at crazy high levels. History suggests a large number of unemployed, fighting age men is not a good thing. Add to that that most of the refugees are coming in via southern Europe and that's hugely combustible, especially when you think that much of northern Europe is slightly more conservative, so you could have a real north/south divide across the whole continent.
I suspect in the short-term you're looking at either 'stay as things are (In)', or 'get worse in the hope they get better (Out)'. Going out creates a massive amount of uncertainty across Europe though imo, and all this talk of "well the EU would still want to trade with us..." is a bit naive, as we're suggesting to other countries that it's quite alright to stick two fingers up to the whole thing. Do those in the 'out' camp really think we'd be the only ones that left if they win the vote?
Do you feel, regardless of who has sent out what leaflet, that there has been little in the way of real information given to the general public on the matter?
From both sides, that is.
Of course, but that's probably true for anything that the public are asked to vote on. I guess when you get to a certain level of decision making then complexity rises at a similar pace as uncertainty, so you'd be having ever more complicated 'workings out' to explain outcomes that are anything but certain. I mean how many times would you hear a politician saying "we think that if we do xyz, there's a 60% chance it will do this..."? Yet that's the reality of things.
So instead we get soundbites that portray the outcome as certain, which might be more digestible for folks with busy lives but is perhaps not ideal for making informed judgements either way.
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