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Top 4 Champions League Race
- Thread starter Shibbywiggles
- Start date
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catcherintherye
Player Valuation: £80m
66 points got 3rd last season. We have won 7 from 8, with him in Goal for 7 of them.
We are bang in the hunt. Theres an argument to say we could be even higher with a better keeper, but with Pickford we will challenge (with little thanks to him).
Sorry, I'm just going to enjoy the season a week at a time...
catcherintherye
Player Valuation: £80m
Theres little doubt he will over the season, as all goalkeepers will. Him more than most..
It's a small sample size, but we are showing form that could be in and around 70+ points so far. Not only is that competing for 4th, its likely to comfortably finish 3rd last season. So I dont get the over reaction.
You could say, if we upgraded Pickford we could compete for the title. Hopefully this time next year that's the sort of conversation we can have.
It's worth noting though, that while his form has been sketchy, he has probably won us a point against Liverpool and 3 at Spurs thus far.
You're right, but that's despite him. We have been incredibly lucky to ride his errors so far, that luck is unsustainable & will cost us sooner rather than later. It's similar to the story XG shows, you can ride your luck with it for 10 games or so, but it catches up.
Secondly, draw a line through 66 points, that was a freak in terms of 3rd and wont happen again. 72 is conservative for top 4, it's definitely doable, but I dont think it is with pickford sadly.
Blue Shoes
Player Valuation: £10m
It's on, but nothings predictable, if james gets a serious injury that's absolutely massive for us and would make it very hard.
jonnyboy316
Player Valuation: £35m
Really big test next weekend with 2 players missing and our goalkeeper issue
barneygumble
Player Valuation: £60m
Yes mate.
Any teams who’s in Europe will have a midweek game before playing us.
So that’s Chelsea and United.
Leicester is a midweek game which is followed by Arsenal, so they’ll all be playing on 3 days rest pretty much, which is very convenient.
catcherintherye
Player Valuation: £80m
You're just not correct on either point I'm afraid.
Xg pre Liverpool had us 1st and 2nd in the league. We will likely have shifted on both a little but we are comfortably top 2-3. Xg is also about the worst measure to analyse if you want to factor in a poor goalkeeper.
Secondly, last season wasnt a free at all. In the last few seasons 72 could have got you 2nd. Last season was hardly a freak year. Given the inconsistencies of the top teams already this year, it looks as if it may be more, or less open.
On a points against the same opponents last season, we are on course for 81 points (by one metric). This will come down by the time we played United mind. But the idea its inconceivable we could even be in the hunt, when weve won 7 from 8 with a goalkeeper is ludicrous. We are literally in the hunt now. We might not make it, but we are in the hunt.
Blue Roo
Player Valuation: £15m
The european places are the most wide open in years, if ever, given how the seasons started.
With the compressed fixtures possibly producing the last man (team) standing scenario
And the crowd factor hasn't shown the course of a season yet.
Everton has a good a chance as any as things stand.
We looking good
and think the crowd factor will work in our favour, over the course of a season when the players start to ebb without the sustenance of the crowd, the Everton players will know who they are playing for and where they are.
Of the injuries, its going to be a lottery (and each injury is going to have a sharper focus)
The early injury to Richarlison might be a blessing in disguise later on.
With the compressed fixtures possibly producing the last man (team) standing scenario
And the crowd factor hasn't shown the course of a season yet.
Everton has a good a chance as any as things stand.
We looking good
and think the crowd factor will work in our favour, over the course of a season when the players start to ebb without the sustenance of the crowd, the Everton players will know who they are playing for and where they are.
Of the injuries, its going to be a lottery (and each injury is going to have a sharper focus)
The early injury to Richarlison might be a blessing in disguise later on.
marcus
Player Valuation: £15m
Great start for us this season...
But now is the test : with Richarlison out for three games goals maybe harder to come by...
Can we keep our good performances & results coming with one of our main goalscorers missing...
I have to wonder where the goals will come from if DCL goes on a drought...
Still think we are short of another back up striker myself, but let's see how we go...
Top of the league & it feels great long may it continue...
But now is the test : with Richarlison out for three games goals maybe harder to come by...
Can we keep our good performances & results coming with one of our main goalscorers missing...
I have to wonder where the goals will come from if DCL goes on a drought...
Still think we are short of another back up striker myself, but let's see how we go...
Top of the league & it feels great long may it continue...
The Sorting Hat
Player Valuation: £750k
Looks like the title race is down to just us and Villa now.
I dont think you have read me right, apologies that is due to my quick reply. I'm not trying to suggest this years Xg at all, firstly the Data isnt sufficient after 5 games & secondly as you correctly point out, it's pointless when you are trying to look at goalkeepers.
I harp back to Emery's 19 games unbeaten at Arsenal & when OGS did something similar, it was a great run, but the XG kept saying it wouldn't last and it didn't over time. My point with JP is simple, he cannot keep making this level of errors while not costing the team. They will catch up on us and cost us points. It has been an incredible start, long may it continue, but when you have a goalie handicapping you somewhere between half a goal and a goal a game (4 errors in 5 if Mane goal allowed), it will cost alot of points.
re top 4 - average of 71.61 point over the last 12 years has finished 4th
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