Farhad Moshiri

[bizzaro]

€30 million not £30 million. However given that (i) the P&L account will be cash generative and positive and (ii) how football clubs treat player acquisitions by spreading the cost of a player acquisition over the length of the contract, whilst booking all revenues in 1 year on a player sale, we will (assuming capital is available) be able to spend heavily on player acquisitions over the next 2 or 3 years particularly if we sell a John Stones every couple of years., should we need to do so.

Yes. I was more talking about any 'investment' on players on him over and above - club's revenues would need to be covered under debt equity swaps and this means that there are limitations on this.

But still it means anyone thinking we will spend £150 million in one go are not being rational.

We will likely spend £50million without too many problems. Plus spend in Summer 2017 again. Without issues.

Meaning we do not have these nasty peaks and troughs that were killing the club.



Whereas years ago people were asking:

"Where's the Arteta money Bill?"

 

[Hong Kong Phooey]

Let's put it this way, if the summer break comes and goes without a major series of announcements and the transfer window looks pretty much like sell to buy then I'd begin to wonder whether what we have on our hands looks that different to what went before.

In that instance it's fair game and I think most of us would feel that way too. But we haven't even reached that summer break yet so let's wait and see and cross that bridge if and when it comes eh?

 

[The Esk]

Yes. I was more talking about any 'investment' on players on him over and above - club's revenues would need to be covered under debt equity swaps and this means that there are limitations on this.

But still it means anyone thinking we will spend £150 million in one go are not being rational.

We will likely spend £50million without too many problems. Plus spend in Summer 2017 again. Without issues.

Meaning we do not have these nasty peaks and troughs that were killing the club.



Whereas years ago people were asking:

"Where's the Arteta money Bill?"

My own calculations show we could have a net spend of £200 million over a three year period without causing any problems on FFP.

 

[bizzaro]

My own calculations show we could have a net spend of £200 million over a three year period without causing any problems on FFP.

But yeah thats the point @The Esk

Thats a three year spend.

The club licencing rules - actually look at trends year to year. So £200 million spread over three years is a more reasonable way to look at what we will do. Not all one go. As explaining it to the authorities may be difficult.

I think we are both in agreement just looking at it different ways.

 

[Neiler]

It was a case of them asking and then demanding a board seat.

Now Mr Moshiri has one - I don't think we will see any major difference to his 'mission statement'.

I don't for one second think we will spend £150million in the summer on players.

Since FFP means we via him - can only write off £30 million every three years (via a debt-equity swap).

I think what it means is we can sign one or two good signings - every summer.

Guaranteed.


Plus infrastructure spending is unlimited. Which is where the majority of his investment will go.

I also think based on his 2012 open letter he won't put debt on the club. He will seek to build infrastructure (stadia etc) increase his share value - then recoup with equity sales to additional investors whilst retaining major stakeholder status.

He's not going to say this right now. As that basically is telling everyone what he is going to do in detail. I'm just saying this as that matches his modus operandi

He's certainly no Randy Lerner!

Someone who knows what he's doing here.

I'm not disagreeing with any of that mate and may well be the case.

But again it's an opinion, based I know on source material, but I see the red and white holdings mission statement as not really a literal document, like I say I think it was politically motivated in a context of time at another club. It also has other contributors , he was involved, but so were arguably different contributors to Moshirr were negotiation and consensus may have had to be reached. I don't think its the smoking gun in terms of what to expect, but reading it, it is soothing, I do think my analogy of the opposition seeking election and making promises holds true.

We just don't know what this guy will bring and how he will bring it and as the custodians of the club or the Peter Johnson Squad, the only thing that matters is the welfare of the club. The judging of that is a long term strategy. It took Learner 10 years to get Villa relegated, but the warning signs were there for years. The proof of what Moshri does will be in the books and relevant to expenditure, debt, funding ,models, revenue growth and infrastructure development. The jury is out on Moshiri for my money and I'll stand a cautious watch. The Innital glitter may be there with player recruitment, but the welfare of the club is broader and more deep rooted.

He has every chance but he needs a watchful eye on him and his regime. At the moment we are all guessing and speculating and judging by what I've read someone somewhere in our fan base is going to be disappointed as expectations are through the roof.

I think FFP is dead mate, it is going to be turned into a loose set of guidelines, with no,I'll fines and such. The power clubs don't want it and with the FIFA/Uefa power vacuum, it's a dead rubber now and will increasingly become more so. Pity.

The Jury is still out overall and I agree with Dave that the fans need some communication, I wasn't overly impressed with his half cut interview with Bill on reflection.

The communication or lack of wouldn't be tolerated elsewhere.

 

[silent bob]

Stay on topic lads.

*disclaimer : One, or more of you may actually be on topic, but do you feel lucky ?

I do like a quiz.

 

[davek]

I think this is a fair comment. I do believe however that the position will be made very much clearer at the end of this season.

I doubt we will spend much of the summer without a much clearer idea of our future and further changes to the ownership structure of the club.

I'm no doubt doing him an injustice and the whole takeover is being meticulously conducted and we will see major beneficial changes in good time. But I'd encourage anyone taking control over this club to make a concerted and sustained effort to take the fans with them by keeping them informed. If they dont, they'll suffer the same fate of sullen resistance and suspicion that marked the previous regime's relationship with fans. If he hasn't been informed of that already he's being badly advised.

 

[bring the ghost on]

Let's put it this way, if the summer break comes and goes without a major series of announcements and the transfer window looks pretty much like sell to buy then I'd begin to wonder whether what we have on our hands looks that different to what went before.

That's fair enough, it's writing him off as a waste of space after a few weeks which seems unreasonable.

 

[Woolly Blue]

I do like a quiz.

Ta mate, the rest of them ignored me like, but I've marked that down in my little black book which shall be passed onto Mr Moshiri in due course

 

[bizzaro]

I'm not disagreeing with any of that mate and may well be the case.

But again it's an opinion, based I know on source material, but I see the red and white holdings mission statement as not really a literal document, like I say I think it was politically motivated in a context of time at another club. It also has , he was involved, arguably different contributors to Moshiri. I don't think its the smoking gun in term of what to expect, but reading it, it is soothing, I do think my analogy of the opposition seeking election and making promises holds true.

We just don't know what this guy will bring and how he will bring it and as the custodians of the club or the Peter Johnson Squad, the only thing that matters is the welfare of the club. The judging of that is a long term strategy. It took Learner 10 years to get Villa relegated, but the warning signs were there for years. The proof of what Moshri does will be in the books and relevant to expenditure, debt, funding ,models, revenue growth and infrastructure development. The jury is out on Moshiri for my money and I'll stand s cautious watch.

The Innital glitter may be there with player recruitment, but the welfare of the club is broader and more deep rooted. He has every chance but he needs a watchful eye on him and his regime. At the moment we are all guessing and speculating and judging by what I've read someone somewhere in our fan base is going to be disappointed.

I think FFP is dead mate, it is going to be turned into a loose set of guidelines, with no,I'll fines and such. The power clubs don't want it and with the FIFA/Uefa power vacuum, it's a dead rubber now and will increasingly become more so. Pity.

The Jury is still out overall and I agree with Dave that the fans need some communication, I wasn't overly impressed with his half cut interview with Bill on reflection.

The communication or lack of wouldn't be tolerated elsewhere.

I think you know myself and @The Esk have been obssessing over Moshiri since it was announced.

There's not a day thats gone past without me thinking about what he's going to do.

As you know myself and @The Esk have different views I prefer investment into the stadium; he preferences player acquisitons.

I'm sure we will get both in the longer term.

I think it will be a bit of both and that was what we were trying to say earlier. This 'EFC to spend £150million in the summer' is nonsense.

Unless we are spending next years budget as well. Which I doubt we will do.

 

[The Esk]

But yeah thats the point @The Esk

Thats a three year spend.

The club licencing rules - actually look at trends year to year. So £200 million spread over three years is a more reasonable way to look at what we will do. Not all one go. As explaining it to the authorities may be difficult.

I think we are both in agreement just looking at it different ways.

Spending £200 million in one year would not present any difficulties as long as the net spending did not continue in years 2 and 3.

If we spend £200 million on players with 5 year contracts that would show as a loss of £40 million a year (plus wages let's say £25 million per annum for those purchases) giving a total cost of £65 million a year for 5 years. Given the P&L at the operating level is likely to show profits next year of £60 million (+/- performance awards) there would be no issue re FFP.

The only issue would be Moshiri's funding of it.

 

[The Esk]

I think you know myself and @The Esk have been obssessing over Moshiri since it was announced.

Not me.

 

[bizzaro]

Spending £200 million in one year would not present any difficulties as long as the net spending did not continue in years 2 and 3.

If we spend £200 million on players with 5 year contracts that would show as a loss of £40 million a year (plus wages let's say £25 million per annum for those purchases) giving a total cost of £65 million a year for 5 years. Given the P&L at the operating level is likely to show profits next year of £60 million +/- performance awards) there would be no issue re FFP.

The only issue would be Moshiri's funding of it.

But as with anything in football. Your player acquisition strategy is all 'ifs and buts'

It has too many presumptions in it that - players perform.

Have seen far too many examples of big spending clubs not get what they expected when they did spend massively. Man United are the latest example.

Whereas a stadium development is guaranteed to give us an increase in share value equity.

....

 

[bizzaro]

Not me.

I have. As you well know.

Obsessed trying to figure out what he's going to do.

Plus that he's no Randy Lerner!!!

 

[The Esk]

But as with anything in football. Your player acquisition strategy is all 'ifs and buts'

It has too many presumptions in it that - players perform.

Have seen far too many examples of big spending clubs not get what they expected when they did spend massively. Man United are the latest example.

Whereas a stadium development is guaranteed to give us an increase in share value equity.

....

I'm not saying we will, nor that it is sensible to do so, just pointing out that it's possible to do so and comply with FFP.