2023/24 Jack Harrison

[caliblue]

He spent 18months under Carlo and scored over 30 goals.

So you work it out, mate.

Wrong thread, I know....

What Carlo did was telling DCL to stop running the channels, to not waste his energy with pressing and to stay in front of the goal. Stay within the width of the 6 yard box as pretty much all goals are scored from there.

He had Richarlison, a clearly more talented player, doing the running. While DCL was stood in front of the goal. He might get one or two chances a game and had to be ready. No heavy legs, no galloping heart rate.

What Carlo asked DCL to do was pretty much exact the same as Solanke was told by Iraola and Watkins was told to do by Emery. Two other English strikers that went from lacking end product to becoming prolific goal scorers when their club changed managers.

DCL can not do what he did for Carlo while playing for such defensive minded managers as Benitez and Dyche. No player can.

That said, defensive work, hold up play, winning duels and being a nuance for defenders are DCL's strengths. He does everything Dyche wants a striker to do really well and is the most talented striker Dyche will ever coach. The question is whether he should do less of that and focus more on goal scoring. And whether Dyche would let him.

100% he'd both score more and be more effective playing for most other managers.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Like his work ethic

 

[LinekersLegs]

Like his work ethic

 

[Amokachi1995]

Like his work ethic

I have a Leeds mate who says he does one of these vids every preseason. Fair play for the effort.

 

[GoldenToffee]

He's simply a model pro isn't he? While he'd be fully entitled to charter a yacht around the Mediterranean, he's over in Miami sweating it out and keeping fully in shape in the off season. I doubt his fitness level even drops all year.

 

[GoldenToffee]

Wrong thread, I know....

What Carlo did was telling DCL to stop running the channels, to not waste his energy with pressing and to stay in front of the goal. Stay within the width of the 6 yard box as pretty much all goals are scored from there.

He had Richarlison, a clearly more talented player, doing the running. While DCL was stood in front of the goal. He might get one or two chances a game and had to be ready. No heavy legs, no galloping heart rate.

What Carlo asked DCL to do was pretty much exact the same as Solanke was told by Iraola and Watkins was told to do by Emery. Two other English strikers that went from lacking end product to becoming prolific goal scorers when their club changed managers.

DCL can not do what he did for Carlo while playing for such defensive minded managers as Benitez and Dyche. No player can.

That said, defensive work, hold up play, winning duels and being a nuance for defenders are DCL's strengths. He does everything Dyche wants a striker to do really well and is the most talented striker Dyche will ever coach. The question is whether he should do less of that and focus more on goal scoring. And whether Dyche would let him.

100% he'd both score more and be more effective playing for most other managers.

This is an extremely well thought-out and reasoned post.

I think many people - myself included - simply look at the player and his stats and compare him to previous seasons.

But how can having Richarlison alongside you and James and Sigurdsson providing for you compare with being alone up top and with Doucoure, McNeil and Harrison behind you? Those three players are significantly worse than the first trio, so of course your game will be negatively impacted.

Plus the style of play is completely different and not set out to win games.

 

[kenada_blue]

Wrong thread, I know....

What Carlo did was telling DCL to stop running the channels, to not waste his energy with pressing and to stay in front of the goal. Stay within the width of the 6 yard box as pretty much all goals are scored from there.

He had Richarlison, a clearly more talented player, doing the running. While DCL was stood in front of the goal. He might get one or two chances a game and had to be ready. No heavy legs, no galloping heart rate.

What Carlo asked DCL to do was pretty much exact the same as Solanke was told by Iraola and Watkins was told to do by Emery. Two other English strikers that went from lacking end product to becoming prolific goal scorers when their club changed managers.

DCL can not do what he did for Carlo while playing for such defensive minded managers as Benitez and Dyche. No player can.

That said, defensive work, hold up play, winning duels and being a nuance for defenders are DCL's strengths. He does everything Dyche wants a striker to do really well and is the most talented striker Dyche will ever coach. The question is whether he should do less of that and focus more on goal scoring. And whether Dyche would let him.

100% he'd both score more and be more effective playing for most other managers.

Let's not forget he was statistical up there with Nunez in terms of golden chances missed. His finishing has always been questioned even in his golden season with Carlo.

Additionally we don't have the luxury of quality in the likes of Richy or the delivery of James and Digne to just let Dom "stand in the box".

The tail end of the season Dom was back to his best as an all round centre forward. He's not the complete package, but very rare do clubs have one.

RE - Watkins never lacked end product by the way. Last season showed he was doing the leg work (13 assists) on top of his goals (19 and was averaging 15 a season previously). He's stayed pretty consistent which is where Dom drops from his level.

 

[caliblue]

RE - Watkins never lacked end product by the way. Last season showed he was doing the leg work (13 assists) on top of his goals (19 and was averaging 15 a season previously). He's stayed pretty consistent which is where Dom drops from his level.

In Premier League he had three straight seasons scoring slightly less than expected. A streaky striker that was hot or cold, well known for trolling fantasy managers all over the world. Brilliant in periods, wasteful in others. With a below average finishing.

That changed when Emery came in. And Watkins himself has in interviews talked about how he was asked to conserve his energy and focus more on positioning.

 

[kenada_blue]

In Premier League he had three straight seasons scoring slightly less than expected. A streaky striker that was hot or cold, well known for trolling fantasy managers all over the world. Brilliant in periods, wasteful in others. With a below average finishing.

That changed when Emery came in. And Watkins himself has in interviews talked about how he was asked to conserve his energy and focus more on positioning.

20/21 - 14 goals
21/22 - 11 goals
22/23 - 15 goals
23/24 - 19 goals.

That's not "below average" from a player they bought from the championship. His finishing is top drawer and he's consistent. The same way Ivan Toney is consistent. 1 season he finished outside the top 10 goalscorers in the season for a team that finished outside the top 4.

Regards to him conserving energy...that's to take him to another level from being already a quality striker.

Dom hasn't been consistent or fit enough to get near him IMO. Regardless of changing up his game.

 

[caliblue]

20/21 - 14 goals
21/22 - 11 goals
22/23 - 15 goals
23/24 - 19 goals.

That's not "below average" from a player they bought from the championship. His finishing is top drawer and he's consistent. The same way Ivan Toney is consistent. 1 season he finished outside the top 10 goalscorers in the season for a team that finished outside the top 4.

Right. I was expecting that you were one of these people that believes that stats every professional football club use have no value, so I tried to not be too technical and use stats such as xG in my post. But over time stats don't lie and they showed that Watkins in three straight seasons for Villa scored less than what was expected from him with average finishing.

For single matches and shorter spells, people focus too much on stats. But over time you can't ignore them.

It should not be that hard to understand. The stats shows what we all have seen. When DCL under Carlo was told to stay in front of the goal and focus on positioning and goal scoring, his numbers as a finisher was average. When he is told to run the channels, sprint towards the corner flag in hope to win throw-ins and bump into massive defenders 30 times a match to win headers, his finishing suffer from that. As it would for any other striker.

When Emery told Watkins what Carlo told DCL to focus on, Watkins went from a below average finisher to a slightly better than average one. This should not surprise anyone. It's not rocket science.

 

[JimmyK]

Right. I was expecting that you were one of these people that believes that stats every professional football club use have no value, so I tried to not be too technical and use stats such as xG in my post. But over time stats don't lie and they showed that Watkins in three straight seasons for Villa scored less than what was expected from him with average finishing.

For single matches and shorter spells, people focus too much on stats. But over time you can't ignore them.

It should not be that hard to understand. The stats shows what we all have seen. When DCL under Carlo was told to stay in front of the goal and focus on positioning and goal scoring, his numbers as a finisher was average. When he is told to run the channels, sprint towards the corner flag in hope to win throw-ins and bump into massive defenders 30 times a match to win headers, his finishing suffer from that. As it would for any other striker.

When Emery told Watkins what Carlo told DCL to focus on, Watkins went from a below average finisher to a slightly better than average one. This should not surprise anyone. It's not rocket science.

If you're going to talk about stats you must realise that over or underperforming on something like xG for one season can't really be used as proof of what you're suggesting. Sometimes players have hot streaks and they will overperform but it isn't proof that a tactical change caused it. Calling Doms form under Ancelotti a season is a bit misleading because what he actually did was have an amazing run for about 10 games where he scored all the time and then he went back to the same sort of form he'd had before and since. He was still playing the same way but he wasn't scoring as much because he just isn't a brilliant finisher like i've said to you in another thread you don't have to have seen much of him for that to be really obvious for people who understand football rather than just stats.

 

[kenada_blue]

Right. I was expecting that you were one of these people that believes that stats every professional football club use have no value, so I tried to not be too technical and use stats such as xG in my post. But over time stats don't lie and they showed that Watkins in three straight seasons for Villa scored less than what was expected from him with average finishing.

For single matches and shorter spells, people focus too much on stats. But over time you can't ignore them.

It should not be that hard to understand. The stats shows what we all have seen. When DCL under Carlo was told to stay in front of the goal and focus on positioning and goal scoring, his numbers as a finisher was average. When he is told to run the channels, sprint towards the corner flag in hope to win throw-ins and bump into massive defenders 30 times a match to win headers, his finishing suffer from that. As it would for any other striker.

When Emery told Watkins what Carlo told DCL to focus on, Watkins went from a below average finisher to a slightly better than average one. This should not surprise anyone. It's not rocket science.

Not at all treacle. Watkins "under performed" by about 2 goals.

Dom's xG under performance was by 5 goals, which was the worst in the league to a point where it's wasn't because of his all round game letting him down but his own quality. He had quality chances and didn't convert. Same with Beto who's xG was 6th worse.

Watkins xG has always been fairly relative to his chances.

Based on that Dom should be getting 10-12 that's even with his current playing style. Watkins just needed some tweaking to get even better.

That's where I just don't agree that standing in the box fixes everything for him.

 

[kenada_blue]

Anyway...big Jacks Back

 

[Goat]

Not at all treacle. Watkins "under performed" by about 2 goals.

Dom's xG under performance was by 5 goals, which was the worst in the league to a point where it's wasn't because of his all round game letting him down but his own quality. He had quality chances and didn't convert. Same with Beto who's xG was 6th worse.

Watkins xG has always been fairly relative to his chances.

Based on that Dom should be getting 10-12 that's even with his current playing style. Watkins just needed some tweaking to get even better.

That's where I just don't agree that standing in the box fixes everything for him.

His xG wasn't the worst in the league, that's just a silly comment.

 

[kenada_blue]

His xG wasn't the worst in the league, that's just a silly comment.

Who is over and underperforming their xG in 2023/24?

See the best and worst finishers so far this season as we analyse players' Expected Goals tallies

www.premierleague.com

Only one player worse than Darwin Nunez in the Premier League!

Here are the top 10 players who were owned by their xG through the 2023/24 Premier League season. Darwin Nunez's numbers are quite something.

www.football365.com

These say so