2023/24 Sean Dyche

[PrekisCrossBarlow!]

Isn’t XG based off shots? And the different variables of the shot i.e. where it was taken from, the angle of the shot, was it from a set piece etc etc

You can theoretically have 10% possession and have a higher Xg than your opponent.

Plus, there are various models out there. Some take into account the time between shots and some don’t. For example our XG against Luton was inflated because all the shots leading up to the goal were calculated independently. We then spent the next 55 minutes not having a single shot on goal yet somehow our XG was high

Yep I shouldn't have used the term 'controlled the game', but certainly its a reflection of the team creating the most good chances. And we are now mainly doing that, whereas we deffo weren't in Lampards last few months.

 

[roy vernon]

I don't want to sound patronising here, genuinely just giving my take on XG as I know plenty of people don't really get it. But when your team creates chances and mainly controls the game, thats what good XG is. If you are under the cosh and basically getting dominated for the whole game. thats what bad XG is.

Under Lampard last season, our opponents were regularly getting twenty shots off against us (even chaff like Fulham and Southampton were having treble the chances we were) and we were barely surviving in games, mainly thanks to last ditch blocks from Coady and Tarkowski. We were clearly inferior to almost all opponents. That isn't the case any more. We're a stronger, more organised team this season, we've just been terrible at converting chances.

I'm honestly puzzled how people can't see the improvement compared to Lampards last few months.

Yeah, I'm sure we'd all be delighted to finish on 34 points, but, with a top 8 xG,

 

[Simon Buttle]

Yeah, I'm sure we'd all be delighted to finish on 34 points, but, with a top 8 xG,

We have an overall 0.77 ppg at the moment and are looking at finishing on 29 points atm, it might just be enough this year.

 

[nsno-chris]

Yep I shouldn't have used the term 'controlled the game', but certainly its a reflection of the team creating the most good chances. And we are now mainly doing that, whereas we deffo weren't in Lampards last few months.

No we’re not; hence my reference to Luton.
We did nothing for 70 minutes in that game

Edit: also as mentioned XG does not reflect how you’ve played at all. It shows you’ve had the most “clear cut” chances. You could have been getting dominated for the game.

 

[PrekisCrossBarlow!]

Yeah, I'm sure we'd all be delighted to finish on 34 points, but, with a top 8 xG,

If we have a top 8 XG we will definitely finish mid table. Actual points and XG points always converges together as the season progresses. We're gonna be absolutely fine this season

 

[Billy Dean]

7 points from 9 games, only 3 of which can pass as difficult, is absolutely atrocious, after a full preseason. No way around it.

I think it's fair to consider that up to the Sheff Utd game we didn't have any attacking players and that is the fault of the clowns in the boardroom rather than him. Even doing that his record is still not that great, but I think we have to apply a bit of context for those first 3 or so games

 

[roy vernon]

If we have a top 8 XG we will definitely finish mid table. Actual points and XG points always converges together as the season progresses. We're gonna be absolutely fine this season

Yeah I'm sure we will, I mean it's not like we've played all the teams we should be beating and not beaten them...oh wait.

 

[Simon Buttle]

I think it's fair to consider that up to the Sheff Utd game we didn't have any attacking players and that is the fault of the clowns in the boardroom rather than him. Even doing that his record is still not that great, but I think we have to apply a bit of context for those first 3 or so games

Being a manager at this level is much about problem solving though and he still has to find a way to compete in games, that's his job. It's possible to play/setup in a game without a striker. If he isn't up to this task be that due to stubbornness or tactical inability then then role isn't for him imo.

 

[Raino85]

I don't want to sound patronising here, genuinely just giving my take on XG as I know plenty of people don't really get it. But when your team creates chances and mainly controls the game, thats what good XG is. If you are under the cosh and basically getting dominated for the whole game. thats what bad XG is.

Under Lampard last season, our opponents were regularly getting twenty shots off against us (even chaff like Fulham and Southampton were having treble the chances we were) and we were barely surviving in games, mainly thanks to last ditch blocks from Coady and Tarkowski. We were clearly inferior to almost all opponents. That isn't the case any more. We're a stronger, more organised team this season, we've just been terrible at converting chances.

I'm honestly puzzled how people can't see the improvement compared to Lampards last few months.

Sean Dyche has 28 points from 27 games

Lampard had 25 points from his last 27 games as manager for us!

Hardly earth shattering is it

 

[nsno-chris]

If we have a top 8 XG we will definitely finish mid table. Actual points and XG points always converges together as the season progresses. We're gonna be absolutely fine this season

Are you sure about that?
Our XG last year had us 13th; Leicester were 12th, Wolves 20th, RS 2nd and Arsenal 5th

 

[JLW]

No we’re not; hence my reference to Luton.
We did nothing for 70 minutes in that game

Edit: also as mentioned XG does not reflect how you’ve played at all. It shows you’ve had the most “clear cut” chances. You could have been getting dominated for the game.

Exactly this.

A ball could get launched into the box and ricochet of 4 players to fall at the feet of a attacking player 8 yards out and balloons it over the bar.

The xG data will show great chance but the reality is it was a pure fluke we even got that chance.
God i hate modern day stats.

 

[nsno-chris]

Exactly this.

A ball could get launched into the box and ricochet of 4 players to fall at the feet of a attacking player 8 yards out and balloons it over the bar.

The xG data will show great chance but the reality is it was a pure fluke we even got that chance.
God i hate modern day stats.

Nothing beats the eye test.

And my eyes have been bleeding for the majority of the games I’ve witnessed under him. That Luton game will stick in my head for a long time.

If there was ever a sign of a manager who is totally clueless on what to do, then that was the game. I was shocked a professional football managers response was to hoof it and hope for the best

 

[MikeH72]

Yep I shouldn't have used the term 'controlled the game', but certainly its a reflection of the team creating the most good chances. And we are now mainly doing that, whereas we deffo weren't in Lampards last few months.

Let’s see what we’re doing after this run of games when we play decent opposition.

 

[Dixieslaces]

Nothing beats the eye test.

And my eyes have been bleeding for the majority of the games I’ve witnessed under him. That Luton game will stick in my head for a long time.

If there was ever a sign of a manager who is totally clueless on what to do, then that was the game. I was shocked a professional football managers response was to hoof it and hope for the best

And Doncaster mate, its been painful throughout but Donny and Luton were proof enough for me!

 

[nsno-chris]

Nothing beats the eye test.

And Doncaster mate, it’s been painful throughout but Donny and Luton were proof enough for me!

I’d actually forgotten about that, i must have tried to scrub it from memory

Oh good lord, that was baaaaaaaaaaad