"sixth, seventh or eighth the best Everton can do"

[D410]

So let me get this straight - we can go through a calendar year with a full transfer window slap bang in the middle where sides regularly outspend us, and finish statistically 4th, yet for some reason it's an absolute absurdity to suggest we could challenge for 4th through a regular season?

We have to put our best eleven out every week and be on it every game vs our peers who have a strong bench to sustain and outlast our small squad over the EPL season.

You know this already but your crusade is look for chinks in the counter argument on a 24/7 basis which is more than what bill is doing to cut you some slack.

 

[Seamus Colemole]

The teams who finish above us have options from the bench. If it is 0-0 after 70 minutes they send on a £20m winger or a £15m striker.

The ONLY teams to finish above us more than once in the last 6 years have vastly bigger squads - like 10 first team players on £100k a week bigger.

It isn't rocket science.

You keep doing this mate.

Who would you rather come on for us, Anichebe who was free on his wages, or Borini who was £11 million on his wages? Cause that seems to be the only considering factor for you.

Spending money makes it easier to buy better players, it doesn't mean you do buy better players.

I bet anything if Liverpool finished above us last year and were above us now you'd say it was because they spent more money that us and had players worth x amount on x amount a week. When we're above them cause we've the better squad, regardless of how much it cost.

And we have every right to expect that squad to be in with a chance of finishing a realistic 4th. Not because we spent the 4th most money, but because if we played to our best we had the 4th best squad. Not we "should" finish 4th, but we had the chance given the ability of our squad.

 

[billycopper]

I think the truth lies somewhere between your two viewpoints. We do have a small squad but Moyes doesn't even utilise that to it's fullest, so lack of numbers can't be the problem.

Mucha has played twice for us this year. Whereas Arsenal's second-choice 'keeper has made 13 appearances and their third choice has played twice. Spurs have split goalkeeping duties between Lloris (22) and Friedel (15).

Our shadow defence have started 23 games in all competitions: Hibbert (4), Heitinga (16), Duffy (0) and Oviedo (3). Arsenal (44): Jenkinson (18), Koscielney (18), Djourou (2), Santos (6) and Spurs (53): Kaboul (1), Gallas (18), Dawson (16), Naughton (18).

In midfield: Everton (7): Barkley (0), Hitzlsperger (4), Junior (1), Gueye (2). Arsenal (44): Diaby (13), Rosicky (3), Ramsey (17), Coquelin (11). Spurs (55): Huddlestone (12), Sigurdsson (12), Livermore (5), Sandro (26).

Up front: Everton (14): Naismith (14), Vellios (0). Arsenal (33): Gervinho (16), Oxlade-Chamberlain (17). Spurs (41): Adebayor (15), Dempsey (26)

There will always be mitigating factors such as our rivals playing in European competition, fielding weakened sides in the League Cup or injuries but, even so, their squad players get much more game time. You could argue that they have greater strength in depth but they're still weakening their first XI by Gervinho in for Podolski or Huddlestone for Parker. And their games are more high pressure because the expectation of Champions League qualification is greater on them.

Heitinga and Naismith are the only two squad men to have started more than 5 games for us this season compared to virtually all of the shadow sides for Arsenal and Tottenham. I appreciate that we have a few youngsters but the North London sides haven't been afraid to use Jenkinson, Naughton, Coquelin, Livermore and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Hitzlsperger is no world-beater admittedly but, if he can't get games ahead of Neville when Gibson is injured then he really is a last resort. Same with Oviedo. Will he only ever start if Baines or Pienaar are unavailable?

 

[Timak]

Although i agree with pretty much all youre saying, Newcastle can't be that much more wealthy can they?

They aren't but they've only finished above us once in 6 years.

I keep repeating it but this is my analogy of the current situation.

Moyes is driving a Ford Focus.

In the race he often beats much faster cars, and always beats all the drivers of similar cars.

However try as he might there are 3-7 cars which are beat him pretty much every season, a couple of Ferraris and some Bugattis.

Whenever he tries to upgrade his car he can't, there simply isn't the money to do so whilst all the drivers above get their cars tuned every season and those who finish below him get nice power upgrades.

Now if people said the problem was the driver you'd think they were insane.

Yet we have a situation where some posters are using the fact Everton won the 3rd most points in 2012 against the manager.

 

[Bluenose1995]

They aren't but they've only finished above us once in 6 years.

I keep repeating it but this is my analogy of the current situation.

Moyes is driving a Ford Focus.

In the race he often beats much faster cars, and always beats all the drivers of similar cars.

However try as he might there are 3-7 cars which are beat him pretty much every season, a couple of Ferraris and some Bugattis.

Whenever he tries to upgrade his car he can't, there simply isn't the money to do so whilst all the drivers above get their cars tuned every season and those who finish below him get nice power upgrades.

Now if people said the problem was the driver you'd think they were insane.

Yet we have a situation where some posters are using the fact Everton won the 3rd most points in 2012 against the manager.

its because that Redcoat has pulled the wool over our fanbase's eyes mate their should be rivers of blood on the streets of Walton their should be horde's of supporters armed with pitchforks banging down the door of the board room yet we clap clap clap them jesus my ears cant take much more of this insistent clapping.

 

[Timak]

You keep doing this mate.

Who would you rather come on for us, Anichebe who was free on his wages, or Borini who was £11 million on his wages? Cause that seems to be the only considering factor for you.

Spending money makes it easier to buy better players, it doesn't mean you do buy better players.

I bet anything if Liverpool finished above us last year and were above us now you'd say it was because they spent more money that us and had players worth x amount on x amount a week. When we're above them cause we've the better squad, regardless of how much it cost.

And we have every right to expect that squad to be in with a chance of finishing a realistic 4th. Not because we spent the 4th most money, but because if we played to our best we had the 4th best squad. Not we "should" finish 4th, but we had the chance given the ability of our squad.

Again you are using the fact that our manager has put together a squad for naff all money in fees and wages as an argument against that same manager.

It makes no sense.

No spending £760b on a 39 year old Swiss left back would not win us the Champions Leauge.

But adding 10 players (heck even 5 players) of quality on £100k a week would give us a really good chance of picking up 10-20 more points a season which would see us challenging to win things.

And adding those extra 5 players on 100k a week would take our wage bill up to the level paid by Aston Villa so it is hardly beyond what is reasonable to compete.

 

[kenada_blue]

A small squad.

A small squad.

A small squad.

I've repeated it 3 times in this one post so that I don't have to engage in any longer debate with you whilst you dodge the question.

Everton are capable of putting together a good run of form. However when players are injured or out of form we do not have sufficient players to replace them in the squad.

The teams who finish above us have options from the bench. If it is 0-0 after 70 minutes they send on a £20m winger or a £15m striker.

The ONLY teams to finish above us more than once in the last 6 years have vastly bigger squads - like 10 first team players on £100k a week bigger.

It isn't rocket science.

2008-2009 We finished finished 5th with an FA cup final, 2 Europa League games, and a few league cup matches. We had 38 players registered as part of the squad which included youth players.

2012-2013 We have 43 players registered including youth players. We look as though we're playing less games than that 09 squad.

Look at the two squads and see which on paper is better equipped to maintain a charge above 6th and cup runs.

 

[Timak]

2008-2009 We finished finished 5th with an FA cup final, 2 Europa League games, and a few league cup matches. We had 38 players registered as part of the squad which included youth players.

2012-2013 We have 43 players registered including youth players. We look as though we're playing less games than that 09 squad.

Look at the two squads and see which on paper is better equipped to maintain a charge above 6th and cup runs.

2009-10 Manchester City were taken over and spent £1b on fees and wages
2009-10 Tottenham increased their wage bill from £50m (a few million more than Everton) to £90m (£30+ million more than Everton) over 3 seasons

And boom 5th at best becomes 7th at best.

 

[kenada_blue]

I think the truth lies somewhere between your two viewpoints. We do have a small squad but Moyes doesn't even utilise that to it's fullest, so lack of numbers can't be the problem.

Mucha has played twice for us this year. Whereas Arsenal's second-choice 'keeper has made 13 appearances and their third choice has played twice. Spurs have split goalkeeping duties between Lloris (22) and Friedel (15).

Our shadow defence have started 23 games in all competitions: Hibbert (4), Heitinga (16), Duffy (0) and Oviedo (3). Arsenal (44): Jenkinson (18), Koscielney (18), Djourou (2), Santos (6) and Spurs (53): Kaboul (1), Gallas (18), Dawson (16), Naughton (18).

In midfield: Everton (7): Barkley (0), Hitzlsperger (4), Junior (1), Gueye (2). Arsenal (44): Diaby (13), Rosicky (3), Ramsey (17), Coquelin (11). Spurs (55): Huddlestone (12), Sigurdsson (12), Livermore (5), Sandro (26).

Up front: Everton (14): Naismith (14), Vellios (0). Arsenal (33): Gervinho (16), Oxlade-Chamberlain (17). Spurs (41): Adebayor (15), Dempsey (26)

There will always be mitigating factors such as our rivals playing in European competition, fielding weakened sides in the League Cup or injuries but, even so, their squad players get much more game time. You could argue that they have greater strength in depth but they're still weakening their first XI by Gervinho in for Podolski or Huddlestone for Parker. And their games are more high pressure because the expectation of Champions League qualification is greater on them.

Heitinga and Naismith are the only two squad men to have started more than 5 games for us this season compared to virtually all of the shadow sides for Arsenal and Tottenham. I appreciate that we have a few youngsters but the North London sides haven't been afraid to use Jenkinson, Naughton, Coquelin, Livermore and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Hitzlsperger is no world-beater admittedly but, if he can't get games ahead of Neville when Gibson is injured then he really is a last resort. Same with Oviedo. Will he only ever start if Baines or Pienaar are unavailable?

Muddies that "we give youth a chance" image we put across.

He's never used his full squad ever. Vellios, Barkley, Oviedo, and Hitzlsperger are good enough to play in order to rotate the squad.

 

[kenada_blue]

2009-10 Manchester City were taken over and spent £1b on fees and wages
2009-10 Tottenham increased their wage bill from £50m (a few million more than Everton) to £90m (£30+ million more than Everton) over 3 seasons

And boom 5th at best becomes 7th at best.

Spurs have always out spent us before that. Liverpool spent more, Villa out spent us previously. Yet we finished 5th and cup final.

The only change was Citeh. Citeh also out spent Spurs that following season... Finished behind Spurs...

The logic is flawed

 

[njligernj]

Well ijjy I like you too. You are on my most respected members list ...... that is quite an accolade!

I demand to see this full list!

 

[ijjysmith]

Well ijjy I like you too. You are on my most respected members list ...... that is quite an accolade!

YES!!!!!

 

[Seamus Colemole]

They aren't but they've only finished above us once in 6 years.

I keep repeating it but this is my analogy of the current situation.

Moyes is driving a Ford Focus.

In the race he often beats much faster cars, and always beats all the drivers of similar cars.

However try as he might there are 3-7 cars which are beat him pretty much every season, a couple of Ferraris and some Bugattis.

Whenever he tries to upgrade his car he can't, there simply isn't the money to do so whilst all the drivers above get their cars tuned every season and those who finish below him get nice power upgrades.

Now if people said the problem was the driver you'd think they were insane.

Yet we have a situation where some posters are using the fact Everton won the 3rd most points in 2012 against the manager.

Yeah, and if In that Focus he's 6 seconds ahead of a Ferrari due to his skills, but 5 laps from home he brakes too hard and gets overtaken some people will still claim he lost cause the Ferrari cost more than his focus.

And if next season the Ferrari spends 5 times as much as him on upgrades but those upgrades turn out to be rubbish some people will expect his Focus to give the Ferrari a good run as its good driver in average car vs average driver in good car.

Yet if he finishes behind the Ferrari because he's too scared to take one of the several overtaking opportunities through fear of crashing some people will still say he lost cause the Ferrari cost more and spent more money on upgrades.

And people aren't using the fact we won the 3rd most points in 2012 against the manager, theyre using against people who say we can't achieve other similar achievements.

Mate, we can and probably will go round in circles. I'll sum up in saying Moyes does a great job compared to his peers in assembling a squad on his budget, better than most. But on average in terms of what he should achieve on the ability of that squad he's about average. I don't want to settle for that and I, and seemingly others get frustrated when money gets used as a catch all excuse for every failure.

 

[Skeleton Crew]

So what this boils down to is if you believe the theory investment = results.

I'm no economics major (actually I am a VP at a bank) but that equation above is generally true 99% of the time.

The reason that statement holds true is because of attrition. Products go stale and without investment, value of the product diminishes.

Hypothesis; if i were to do a one-time investment of 100M into Everton this next transfer window, I would venture a guess EFC would move up in the table by a significant amount due to the increase in talent and value of our assets (players / infrastructure etc..)
Excellent. In all likelihood the investment will have a return (more tv, sales, fans, wins).

But lets say all those returns I decide to spend on hookers and blow. I do not invest anymore into the club. Eventually those assets lose functionality. Players get injured or turn 36 or facilities fail. Yes it might take a year, or a few but attrition happens. It is a 100% fact of life

Present day application, Everton in that window of attrition. We are at the break even point where potential has already been realized in full.

We can point to clubs outspending us; the RS, Spurs...Villa..QPR (oh lawd).... Yes we might stay ahead of them in the table this year...or even next, but while we are stagnant they are adding a new value product(player) each year. Our attrition rate will diminish much faster.

Using that car analogy above.
We can buy 1 good engine each year.
the other drivers buy 3 average engines each year but every other year they find a way to increase 1 average engine into a good engine.

No matter, how good our driver is...he cant overcome the inevitable forever.

 

[Tubey]

So what this boils down to is if you believe the theory investment = results.

Actually, no it doesn't.

Not meaning to be awkward, but investment definitely DOES equal improved results. Nobody at all is claiming that high investment does anything other than that.

BUT... It's not the sole contributing factor to results. Timak in particular believes that investment in personnel dictates the expected level of performance in the Premier League, yet he refuses point blank to acknowledge the massive gaping hole in that logic when a club like QPR obliterate our net spend over a decade in one season yet perform uselessly.

There's multiple contributory factors to performance. This is the best way I can explain it:

Sixth, seventh or eighth would be par for the course. It'd be, in terms of a career, the bare minimum KPI's you should hit to be able to say you've done your job properly.

Yet in golf, you can get a birdie, an eagle, an albatross and a hole in one. Golfers don't aim for par. Therefore, sixth, seventh or eighth isn't the "best we can do" - if you take on board all the contributory factors at Everton, it's the very LEAST we should be doing.

Therefore, the mark of a truly brilliant manager is how he can go beyond his KPIs. Moyes has done it twice in 10 years - he finished 4th and reached a cup final - but is that enough to call him a truly great manager?

Not for me, and not for a lot of Evertonians. He could do better.

EDIT: Just to note, I don't think Moyes has done a "bad" job; my point is he hasn't done an exceptional job. I'd expect progress from anyone in any career sector who is in a job for 10 years. Taking us from circa 12th-17th in the Smith era to 7th-10th now is progress, but not "exceptional".