Top 4 Champions League Race

[matty1878]

To early to tell and we’re short on strikers.
If we buy in Jan and we’re around top 5 in February March it’s possible I mean we have Carlo now

 

[Steve EFC]

I’m sure we will be there or thereabouts which would represent huge progress!!
Carlo has made a difference just in mindset alone, the signings have added a new and improved dynamic too.
The lack of European football should be an added bonus to how we fare aswell.
That said The concerns are, if you remove a few of our key players from the equation due to injury or suspension and then we are relying on those same players that weren’t good enough last year or the year before.
Which is why being realistic and being contented with Significant progress has to be our expectation with each window further adjustments being made. The future is bright though.

 

[catcherintherye]

I dont think you have read me right, apologies that is due to my quick reply. I'm not trying to suggest this years Xg at all, firstly the Data isnt sufficient after 5 games & secondly as you correctly point out, it's pointless when you are trying to look at goalkeepers.

I harp back to Emery's 19 games unbeaten at Arsenal & when OGS did something similar, it was a great run, but the XG kept saying it wouldn't last and it didn't over time. My point with JP is simple, he cannot keep making this level of errors while not costing the team. They will catch up on us and cost us points. It has been an incredible start, long may it continue, but when you have a goalie handicapping you somewhere between half a goal and a goal a game (4 errors in 5 if Mane goal allowed), it will cost alot of points.

re top 4 - average of 71.61 point over the last 12 years has finished 4th

No problems. I will try to tailor my reply to each point as they are interesting points on each.

The Xg does suggest we are sutainable. Thats the point here. The Xg has us likely to be in the top 3 or 4 teams in each category, which is normally indicative of a side that wins the league. Xg information really validates the idea that it is sustainable.

Emery Arsenal is the opposite comparison. They outperformed their Xg, but they have 2 world class finishers, Lacazette and Aubamyang. So it wasn't ll luck for Arsenal, it was they had two players who were great finishers.

I agree with your point, which I think is that Pickford as a goalkeeper is such a lag on Xg he pulls us down. At present though he seems to be pulling us from top 1/2 in the league to probably around the top 4-5. That would be my counter here. I think Pickford will cost us too, but we are falling from a higher base re Xg as things stand.

(Edit, we are actually 2nd on goals scored, 3rd on goals conceded and 2nd overall on points from this site https://understat.com/league/EPL ).

On the 2nd point, A lot of those years have an existing top 4 that wascut off from the league. That came downa bit when it went to 6, and at present seems to be coming down more year on year. Early indictions do not give rise to the theory that there will be 4 distinctive sides stronger than last season. But even if we met in the middle, and said the to 4 will be between 65 and 72 points, its hard to argue we are not actively in the hunt for that now

I did some research last week, looking into sides who won their first 4 games over the past 25 years. 15 of the 17 finished in the top 4, and most finished in the top 2. We have done it 3 times in the last 60 years and have finished 1st, 1st and 4th. Statistics would indicate we are in the mix.

The 2 sides that didn't were Watford (18), and Sheffield Wednesday (96) and both of them lost their 5th game and went on a run of 1 point from 4 games.So we have already avoided one of those metrics, and short of losing the next 3 consecutively will have avoided the other measure. Again it doesn't mean we will finish in the top 4, but we can legitmately say we are in the hunt.

 

[brieverton]

There is a lot of fluidity this season, and abnormal conditions prevailing.
But really the biggest cliché is one game at a time, the next game, and we should approach it thus.

I think it will take a bit longer for the table to settle down this year, maybe 12 games in or so before we set a pattern that is more likely to stay in place more or less.

Martinez was right when he said you could only set a target with 8 games to go and I still think that applies to us.

The obvious threats from within are Pickford, and a lack of a backup striker.

We "could" make top four, I think it unlikely but far from impossible either.

The biggest thing in football is momentum, and every game is critical in that respect.

Even look at next Sunday, win that, with Richy out, and you start to think, "Yes, something, has changed here".

 

[number4.]

No problems. I will try to tailor my reply to each point as they are interesting points on each.

The Xg does suggest we are sutainable. Thats the point here. The Xg has us likely to be in the top 3 or 4 teams in each category, which is normally indicative of a side that wins the league. Xg information really validates the idea that it is sustainable.

Emery Arsenal is the opposite comparison. They outperformed their Xg, but they have 2 world class finishers, Lacazette and Aubamyang. So it wasn't ll luck for Arsenal, it was they had two players who were great finishers.

I agree with your point, which I think is that Pickford as a goalkeeper is such a lag on Xg he pulls us down. At present though he seems to be pulling us from top 1/2 in the league to probably around the top 4-5. That would be my counter here. I think Pickford will cost us too, but we are falling from a higher base re Xg as things stand.

(Edit, we are actually 2nd on goals scored, 3rd on goals conceded and 2nd overall on points from this site https://understat.com/league/EPL ).

On the 2nd point, A lot of those years have an existing top 4 that wascut off from the league. That came downa bit when it went to 6, and at present seems to be coming down more year on year. Early indictions do not give rise to the theory that there will be 4 distinctive sides stronger than last season. But even if we met in the middle, and said the to 4 will be between 65 and 72 points, its hard to argue we are not actively in the hunt for that now

I did some research last week, looking into sides who won their first 4 games over the past 25 years. 15 of the 17 finished in the top 4, and most finished in the top 2. We have done it 3 times in the last 60 years and have finished 1st, 1st and 4th. Statistics would indicate we are in the mix.

The 2 sides that didn't were Watford (18), and Sheffield Wednesday (96) and both of them lost their 5th game and went on a run of 1 point from 4 games.So we have already avoided one of those metrics, and short of losing the next 3 consecutively will have avoided the other measure. Again it doesn't mean we will finish in the top 4, but we can legitmately say we are in the hunt.

Really good post and busy day for me so not getting into detailed reply. Couple of points

1) 5 games not enough to consider this years XG, it can only be validated over longer term. Pickfords form sadly has been consistent for over 18 months
2) You could well be right on top 4, I took the simple route of averages but there are 63 point seasons in that list.
3) Spot on re pickford and about 4th/5th seems right. 2 through 11, I think we are there or there abouts for title, but we have two weaknesses. Keeper and squad depth - Squad depth may well improve through competition, a prime example of that is Sigi pulling his socks up

 

[ForeverBlue92]

There is a lot of fluidity this season, and abnormal conditions prevailing.
But really the biggest cliché is one game at a time, the next game, and we should approach it thus.

I think it will take a bit longer for the table to settle down this year, maybe 12 games in or so before we set a pattern that is more likely to stay in place more or less.

Martinez was right when he said you could only set a target with 8 games to go and I still think that applies to us.

The obvious threats from within are Pickford, and a lack of a backup striker.

We "could" make top four, I think it unlikely but far from impossible either.

The biggest thing in football is momentum, and every game is critical in that respect.

Even look at next Sunday, win that, with Richy out, and you start to think, "Yes, something, has changed here".

You're right there mate - im not confident without Richarlison on the pitch but if we can get 3 points at an away ground we dont usually do great at against a inconsistent but decent side then it gives us big confidence going into Newcastle then Man Utd.

 

[catcherintherye]

Really good post and busy day for me so not getting into detailed reply. Couple of points

1) 5 games not enough to consider this years XG, it can only be validated over longer term,
2) You could well be right on top 4, I took the simple route of averages but there are 63 point seasons in that list.
3) Spot on re pickford and about 4th/5th seems right. 2 through 11, I think we are there or there abouts for title, but we have two weaknesses. Keeper and squad depth - Squad depth may well improve through competition, a prime example of that is Sigi pulling his socks up

Fair point, feel free to come back with more detail and I will try to reply in kind! Just one what you've said.

1) Yes perhaps true but it is the only data set we have available currently. I mean if you take the view it's too early, then the only concusion you can draw is we are neither in the race for top 4 or not in the rce for top 4 as it's too early. You can't rule it out as well as ruling it in as there is not enough data available.

2) I think we regress to mean at some point. I do not see us picking up 2.4 points per game. The question is how much.

3) Squad depth is fair. We play once a week that helps us.

 

[catcherintherye]

You're right there mate - im not confident without Richarlison on the pitch but if we can get 3 points at an away ground we dont usually do great at against a inconsistent but decent side then it gives us big confidence going into Newcastle then Man Utd.

People won't like to here it, but if we can pick up 6 points from the next 3 games I think it would be brilliant outcome. To a degree5 would not even be a disaster. It would leave us on 18/19 points from 8. 10+ from the next 5 is really the target and if we do that and are 10 games in with low-mid 20's we have made a very positive start.

Tough game though, your man Danny Ings will be a headache for us!

 

[number4.]

Fair point, feel free to come back with more detail and I will try to reply in kind! Just one what you've said.

1) Yes perhaps true but it is the only data set we have available currently. I mean if you take the view it's too early, then the only concusion you can draw is we are neither in the race for top 4 or not in the rce for top 4 as it's too early. You can't rule it out as well as ruling it in as there is not enough data available.

2) I think we regress to mean at some point. I do not see us picking up 2.4 points per game. The question is how much.

3) Squad depth is fair. We play once a week that helps us.

Just on the ruling us out but not ruling is in. My point would be with Pickford, I rule us out as we have enough data to show he will be a 15 point handicap. If Olsen is good or a Jan signing come in - anything is possible

 

[Toffeelover]

I didn't know VD was classed as an injury.

Call him by what ever name you like.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

People won't like to here it, but if we can pick up 6 points from the next 3 games I think it would be brilliant outcome. To a degree5 would not even be a disaster. It would leave us on 18/19 points from 8. 10+ from the next 5 is really the target and if we do that and are 10 games in with low-mid 20's we have made a very positive start.

Tough game though, your man Danny Ings will be a headache for us!

Next two games we face two of the most inform and under rated strikers in the division in Danny Ings and Callum Wilson.

If we can come away with 6 points we'll have done very very well.

 

[jimmythenut]

Fair point, feel free to come back with more detail and I will try to reply in kind! Just one what you've said.

1) Yes perhaps true but it is the only data set we have available currently. I mean if you take the view it's too early, then the only concusion you can draw is we are neither in the race for top 4 or not in the rce for top 4 as it's too early. You can't rule it out as well as ruling it in as there is not enough data available.

2) I think we regress to mean at some point. I do not see us picking up 2.4 points per game. The question is how much.

3) Squad depth is fair. We play once a week that helps us.

It would be interesting for you to revisit this again say after 10 games and again at Xmas.

I know a lot of people have stats on league winners when top at Xmas, but not seen any data on after 10 games. Seems enough games in the bag at that point to start seeing which teams will compete.

I think this season being more competitive against the top 6 teams and taking some wins and draws in the process will get us there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Also, our away form over the years has been terrible. These two next away games will probably give us a better indication of whether we're the real deal or not.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Top four is on alright the traditional champion league regulars arses have been clacking all weekend since the Derby...

 

[Yarrgh]

Ask me in 31 games time.

 

[WA Toffee]

We're going to go and win the bloody thing.