Everton Transfer Thread 2016

[Petit]

Anything in it Esk?
Maybe you wouldn't post it if there wasn't.

 

[Nil Satis Niasse Optimum]

So 275k p/w to play with.

Rules allow us to increase our wage budget by £7m per season +/- any change in non broadcasting revenues.

So looking at the trading profit from those players.

We might make a bit on McCarthy (though I don't think he'll be sold), let's say we bring in £17m on him - that's a £3.5m profit.
We'll lose £6m on Kone.
We'll lose £1m on McGeady
If we loan Niasse, he's a wash. If we sell him we'll lose AT LEAST £6m
Oviedo hard to say, but let's say a couple of million profit.

Player trading will be somewhere between a £13m LOSS and about breaking even.

So we'll have a net wage "budget" for new players of somewhere between £275k p/w and about 25k p/w

Even at the top end of that, we'd have salary space for what, a couple of the players you mentioned? Certainly not anywhere near the full list.

Sadly, due to the STCC rules, we probably do NEED to sell Stones - and he'll almost certainly go. Which I guess makes this conversation kinda moot

Then we sell Mori to Barca for 25m instead! Heard they were interested a while back. Sorted!

 

[bluestevon]

So 275k p/w to play with.

Rules allow us to increase our wage budget by £7m per season +/- any change in non broadcasting revenues.

So looking at the trading profit from those players.

We might make a bit on McCarthy (though I don't think he'll be sold), let's say we bring in £17m on him - that's a £3.5m profit.
We'll lose £6m on Kone.
We'll lose £1m on McGeady
If we loan Niasse, he's a wash. If we sell him we'll lose AT LEAST £6m
Oviedo hard to say, but let's say a couple of million profit.

Player trading will be somewhere between a £13m LOSS and about breaking even.

So we'll have a net wage "budget" for new players of somewhere between £275k p/w and about 25k p/w

Even at the top end of that, we'd have salary space for what, a couple of the players you mentioned? Certainly not anywhere near the full list.

Sadly, due to the STCC rules, we probably do NEED to sell Stones - and he'll almost certainly go. Which I guess makes this conversation kinda moot

You're forgetting how values amortize there mate

 

[catcherintherye]

As ever a very thoughtful piece, especially the idea that we may transition from a club that tried to retain players to one that was more open to trading, particularly given that Koeman has had some success with this strategy.

Personally I think it's a high risk strategy but perhaps it has one benefit of offering players a relatively easy exit route if we are not the right club or fail to match our ambitions.

I have thought for some time whether or not our determination to keep Stones last year, and our determination to keep Lukaku this year is counter-productive in the recruitment process. There may be a feeling that we are a difficult club to leave which in an era when it seems players move more frequently than the past may present problems.

Having said that we need a core group to build around and it is clear that Lukaku forms a key component given our reliance on his goals.
I can only stress that we have a new contract on the table for him to sign, but with potential release clauses should a CL club come knocking in the future. Raiola was happy to agree the contract with Lukaku so clearly there is not the same desire to leave Everton as suggested by some of the press.

What will make the job of him staying easier is our successes in the current window attracting a Mata, a Carvalho or Witsel etc.

Personally I believe we offer enough and will bring in sufficient talent to retain his services. I don't doubt then he will perform at his very best for Koeman, unlike the dismal effort at the end of the Martinez reign.

Thanks mate and you. I always thought one of the few weaknesses of Moyes was his inability to trade more, as it was always a strength. Perhaps it's easier to get better at it doing less?

I think you are absolutely right about the negative impact on keeping players. People won't like this but most footballers view all football clubs as stepping Stones. A feeling that you may get stuck with Everton may well prevent younger players, like say a Carvalho more cautious on joining Everton. If we went back on our word with Stones and it gets out there will be an impact.

I think as a general rule our board is very keen to keep Lukaku. It wants to make a statement of intent and keeping him would be. However I sense Koeman will be less keen and the past would indicate if a player wants to leave he won't much time getting rid.

The main gist of my post is really about trying to give a little more underlying context to Stones going and if we were to sell Lukaku what factors may have led to that consideration. On the face of it it looks like "same old Everton". I do think the board was unfortunate to inherit a situation with 2 star names who were seemingly disgruntled. There wasn't an awful lot that could be done about that.

More importantly though as Evertonians we have come to view selling players with enormous suspicion. It was often done begrudgingly at a time when we could see sides who were smaller than us pushing us around. The Lescott affair was particularly galling for that. It seemed to undermine our premise that the historical successes of the past made us a more attractive and bigger club and brutally challenged that shared understanding.

The anger was added too by the fact we had a manager (particularly Moyes but also Martinez) who cherished the idea of having a settled squad. He never wanted much money but just wanted to get ti keep his players. Alongside that it felt as if we had to sell players because we were in desperate trouble financially, or we had to way of recruiting without doing so. Essentially we had a board with no plan for growth relying on an overperforming manager to keep us treading water.

It’s easy to see how frustration kicked in. As I keep saying though I do think the situation is different now and more importantly I think we need to shift our view to losing players. What angered people was not selling players, but not being able to effectively dictate the terms with which they left. We now have a manager who is happy to trade and a board with a vision for the future not dependent on flogging a star every couple of years to give the illusion of good performance. As a knock on affect a board that will not enforce restrictions or decisions on the manager.

When I see Koeman I don’t see a manager who looks on the brink of suicide which is how Moyes would often look in pre season. As yet none of the big deals have come off but he looks as if he is a manager in control and comfortable with how the process is going. In any business, being told you have to lose staff is very different to you pro-actively deciding that members of staff can be moved along at a time that is most suitable. From the outside looking in it can look very similar but they are worlds apart.

As for Lukaku he may well stay but the “money can’t buy you Stones” rhetoric is great for a song but in reality doesn’t make sense. There will be a figure even our desire to look make a statement becomes unnecessary. I’m not saying that figure is 70 million but a number does exist. For me if he wishes to leave the 70 million figures works well for me. If he wants to stay and work hard (and sign a Contract) then I think we can reject it. What I don’t want though, is halfway through next season if we are not in the top 4 Lukaku has a sulk and decides to stop trying and makes out we are holding him back.

 

[Geoff Nulty]

I do wonder if our bluff has been called a little bit regarding Lukaku. We placed a 65 million fee on his head which looked exorbitant and quite laughable given a lot of his performances at the Euro's. In part due to his antics I think we probably upped that to 75 million. I think this was to put Rom in his place.

For whatever reason it looks as if Chelsea may well get close to calling our bluff and getting very close to those figures. It smacks of a panic buy in all honesty, with growing discontent at their lack of activity, fears they are being left behind by United/City and a new manager looking to make a mark while struggling to finalise deals. A Chelsea ST holder I speak to says he wants 2 up top.

I think it's left us in a quandary. In all honesty I am not sure many people would be gutted if we lost Lukaku for circa 70 million. It wouldn't feel like Lescott, Rooney or even the Stones saga last season. His first touch is poor but I think you can work around that to a point if he used his physicality better. It's more that he has too many bad games for me. I remember Lampard saying judge a footballer on his bad games not his good games as most weeks you are not having a stand out performance.

Lukaku really struggles in that regard. He was awful for 10 games last season and had games for Belguim where he was very ordinary. People may say with Everton he lost faith with the manager. However do premium level 75 million centre forwards let their performance drop to that extent over being a bit unhappy? I worry about his mental state which is critical to be a top player. Compare him to Suarez (as the fees are in the same bracket though we look likely to get more) even if it's not happening for him in front of goal he still does a lot for the team on a bad day. The same for most top players Rooney, Shearer, Ronaldo even on a bad day they still contribute.

This is the rub though. I think the board would be happy to keep Lukaku to make a statement however I think the manager may be quite au fait with him leaving. We have almost come full circle. We had a manager Moyes who was very reluctant to lose players and Martinez also seemed unwilling to lose young players. Koeman seems cut from a different cloth. Lots of players left Southampton and it never seemed to overly worry him. I think he has very high expectations from a player and if they are not interested they can go. I think he will talk to Rom, but if there's any sign he will sulk like last season I expect Koeman will volley him out personally.

When Lallana left he went and got Mane. When Schneiderlin left he got Claissie. For Shaw see Bertrand, for Chambers see Clyne, Lambert > Pelle. He seems happy to trade and generally trade upwards if the player wants to go.

I agree with everything @The Esk says in that the board won't want to sell him. He is obviously very sources up. I think we have gone full circle a bit though. Almost from managers who were reluctant to trade with a board who compelled them too, to a situation now where the board may not wish too but a manager who is quite calm with that.

I think the Lukaku situation is fluid. He may go and for the fees quoted I would be quite content. The key will be which Lukaku we get. The one who was on for 30+ goals for 2/3's of last season or the petulant lad who finished last season because of a supposed grievance he faces. I agree with everyone saying replacing 18 goals will be hard, but if he is not switched on and happy he won't score 18 goals.

This will be unpopular but if we can get in 2-3 from Long, Benteke, Bony, Berahino or Lacazette it would give us a balance we lack. I think all of the names could improve under Koeman.

DOES HE IMPROVE?

That's a good point you make about Suarez. I've never seen a player who combines his tenacity and talent. Lukaku often seems to lack interest in games and he also seems quite easy to intimidate. That shouldn't be the case, given his size and strength, but everything comes down to character with sports-people. That's not to question his character - he just doesn't seem nasty enough for me.
I wonder if Koeman is more relaxed about players leaving because he was such a top player himself, unlike Moyes and Martinez, so he understands that players will want to move clubs, whereas M and M were probably just happy to have a club at all.

 

[catcherintherye]

Sorry mate, you normally post decent stuff but likening replacing lukaku with replacing lallana is mental.

There's a reason we set that price on his head, it's almost impossible for a club like us to replace a top striker, who exactly are we Gina be able to bring in when we are struggling badly to get players like witsel and such over the line?

That’s a fair point mate. And you’re argument would be that either Lukaku or what Lukaku offers is more central to Everton than Lallana was to Southampton?

I can go along with that. I suppose I was making a general point about Koeman being happy to trade players. None of the names I mentioned in all honesty are as central and important as Lukaku could be.

My key point in this though is it depends on Lukaku. Moreso than most players whats going on in his head seems to make a massive difference. If he wants to leave and we can get the figures being suggested it would be madness not to consider selling because in all honesty he won’t be the player we want him to be.

If he wants to stay we should keep him as the lad can score 25+ league goals next season as he would have done last season had he not sulked for the last quarter of it.

 

[DW88EFC]

I think with Witsel it's a question of do Juve really want him, and despite all that's been written there's nothing from Juve to suggest that as yet? Otherwise he will be content to join us, as he has been very close to doing so on two occasions this summer.

There's still confidence we can attract Carvalho and that work continues behind the scenes.

Mata as I mentioned yesterday has been re-ignited and I believe we have an extremely good chance of succeeding in landing what for many would be a marquee signing.

Nice one mate. Just been reading Pogba has stated he is staying at Juve. (pinch of salt salt an all that I know) If that's the case then surely that leaves just us in the running?

 

[bluestevon]

Nice one mate. Just been reading Pogba has stated he is staying at Juve. (pinch of salt salt an all that I know) If that's the case then surely that leaves just us in the running?

I'm guessing that Juve will have to sell Pogba or they are gonna get creamed by FFP after spending 140-150m Euros already this summer

 

[bluestevon]

That’s a fair point mate. And you’re argument would be that either Lukaku or what Lukaku offers is more central to Everton than Lallana was to Southampton?

I can go along with that. I suppose I was making a general point about Koeman being happy to trade players. None of the names I mentioned in all honesty are as central and important as Lukaku could be.

My key point in this though is it depends on Lukaku. Moreso than most players whats going on in his head seems to make a massive difference. If he wants to leave and we can get the figures being suggested it would be madness not to consider selling because in all honesty he won’t be the player we want him to be.

If he wants to stay we should keep him as the lad can score 25+ league goals next season as he would have done last season had he not sulked for the last quarter of it.

decent post mate.

For me he is right this minute an irreplacable player for us and so we should not entertain ANY bid whatever the size, give him a new contract with a release clause in it should we not achieve what he wants and for a fee we agree upon, that gives us a year to get the replacement sorted and hopefully from a much much stronger position than we are in currently (basically in the midst of wholesale changes from top to bottom of the club)

SPurs did that with Bale, the rs with Suarez and apparently United did it with Ronaldo and all 3 got a ;last fantastic season out of them

 

[Ashtonian]

3000 pages people!!!!!!

and we are shopping in the championship for our players. Who would have thought that 2999 pages ago?

 

[catcherintherye]

That's a good point you make about Suarez. I've never seen a player who combines his tenacity and talent. Lukaku often seems to lack interest in games and he also seems quite easy to intimidate. That shouldn't be the case, given his size and strength, but everything comes down to character with sports-people. That's not to question his character - he just doesn't seem nasty enough for me.
I wonder if Koeman is more relaxed about players leaving because he was such a top player himself, unlike Moyes and Martinez, so he understands that players will want to move clubs, whereas M and M were probably just happy to have a club at all.

Spot on that matey. Top players can have bad games don’t get me wrong. I remember when Suarez first started for Liverpool he was quite a poor finisher and missed a lot of chances but he had something about him.

People slated Lukaku for his performance At Wembley, in many ways it was his worst game for us but also his bets of the last 10. Largely because he put himself about, bullied defenders and got on the end of things. Some days it won’t go in for you, that happens but a lad with his physique should never give a defender an easy game. There were too many easy games last season.

I take the Arsenal game at home and he wondered off to the left wing. Deulofeu put cross after cross into the box and he was nowhere to be seen. He was waiting for the perfect cut back on the edge of the box. Sometimes when the team is struggling they can’t make a perfect chance for you but you have to get in the middle between the posts and challenge for headers. That’s what Shearer did, without fail every week.

In fairness to him a lot of that was the tactics of Martinez. I do think though, top players suss that out and will go against a coaches viewpoint. They see the balance of the game. Can anyone imagine Shearer in a game Newcastle were struggling in standing on the left wing as uncontested crosses went into the box? Or Rooney? Or Suarez? Even if they had a poor game they still wouldn’t make it easy for you.

As for Koeman another good point. I think that's central to it. He has played for and managed the 3 top sides in Holland and is respected by all. The Dutch as a nation and also in football are quite happy to trade. It is expected for top players to leave Holland and always has been. I don't think it will be seen in disastrous terms by Koeman.

 

[ijjysmith]

3000 pages people!!!!!!

and we are shopping in the championship for our players. Who would have thought that 2999 pages ago?

Which players that have played in the Championship we after mate?

 

[catcherintherye]

decent post mate.

For me he is right this minute an irreplacable player for us and so we should not entertain ANY bid whatever the size, give him a new contract with a release clause in it should we not achieve what he wants and for a fee we agree upon, that gives us a year to get the replacement sorted and hopefully from a much much stronger position than we are in currently (basically in the midst of wholesale changes from top to bottom of the club)

SPurs did that with Bale, the rs with Suarez and apparently United did it with Ronaldo and all 3 got a ;last fantastic season out of them

Yep that's a fair point. I think with Suarez in particular but also Ronaldo (I don't know about Bale as much) they got an agreement from them they would give it 100%. If we get that from Lukaku then that's fine. However if he will sulk like he did for the last 10 games I am not sure there's much point keeping him.

Anyway I saw another post you made, were you from near the Bluebell Estate? (Apologies for off topic).

 

[Blue Parkender]

Can we please just get Mata, Big Willi, Horn or Leno and that young striker from Holland Hammer job done. Not much to ask Everton.

 

[DW88EFC]

I'm guessing that Juve will have to sell Pogba or they are gonna get creamed by FFP after spending 140-150m Euros already this summer

So can they even afford witsel if they sell? without getting done by FFP? As mentioned earlier, everyone seems to be having a standoff with one another.