Relegation

[Zatara]

I admire your optimism mate but it’s over. Well, unless we beat Chelsea tomorrow.

Not quite no. Lots of things can happen

 

[Luke Jay]

If we do go down I've asked myself how much of my free time I'll continue to spend on football. There's been periods in my late teens and early 20's I thought I'd had enough of the game, not because we were crap or anything but just how pointless and commercial it all felt. I tell myself it doesn't mean anything then involuntarily leap off the sofa if a shot grazes the post. If I wasn't from this city I think I'd have walked away from it for good. They have you wearing the teams colours and that first kit from such an early age that your loyalty is not your own choice. I could say a lot but won't.

 

[Del-boy]

Going off at the Hilton..

 

[Daytripper]

Fireworks woke me up now I can’t sleep ??

 

[Khalekan]

I still believe we are staying up

Me too.

 

[barearse-alona]

we would take we’re we are now?

You could literally spend all day predicting different outcome, we just have to win tomorrow and then the game in hand, that would put us a point above both Leeds and Burnley, looking at the table right now I’m sure all of us would take that (and hopefully keep it that way until the end of the season), so just get behind the team tomorrow.

He literally just said a win tomorrow and winning the game in hand would take us above Leeds and Burnley and we’d all take that…. Try reading the posts before trying to be smart!

 

[Death]

Most these from a couple weeks ago.

We had an easy start to get points on the board and there’s some atrocious teams in the league this year. Reckon 35 points stays up. So not this year. But I think odds will shorten as we drift down the table, so lumping on at 50/1 and laying later might not be a bad strategy.

Probably only need 34-35 points, hence why we won’t go down, even this shower can pick up another 20 points.

Where I do agree with posters thinking about relegation is that we do have the smell of a side who could go one year. Terrible transfer strategy, lots of managers, spine of a weasel side etc..

I think 35 points will be enough to keep a team up this season. The difficulty will be riding this period out with the injuries we have, without catastrophising, changing the manager yet again and starting the merry go round again.

35 points will probably be enough to stay up, cant see us falling below 35 points even with injuries , if he gets our lowest points then even his biggest fans will have a rethink.

Hopefully Brentford will be in freefall.
As will be Watford
Norwich are probably preparing for the Championship.
Burnley are in the habit of losing.
Newcastle, well here's hoping.
Leeds ,bubble has burst.
They'll all beat us at some stage,Everton that.
Just get 35 points blues.....yes its got to that, already.

Yes we will have a good idea where we stand after Saturday

You think one of Newcastle, Norwich or Burnley will get to 35 points? They are currently on 10 and 11 so would have to more than double their tally for the second half to get near that. I would not be surprised if 30 gets you safe this season.

35 points would prob do it mate

Need 16 points to get to 35 points but I struggle to see where we can get them from. Aaaarrghhhh......this is so painful. Please kick this lot up the arse Frank and get at least 4 points from next two games.

I think 35 points will be more than enough to stay out of the bottom 3.

Is 16 points do-able in the last 17 games? Almost certainly.

I'd expect home form to improve dramatically and that in itself may get 16 points or more. Players returning from injury could be a massive factor also.

Despite the recent struggles I don't see a situation where relegation is a reality. I think the bigger challenge lies ahead in the summer and convincing some of the better players to stay after flirting with relegation for part of the season.

Norwich and Burnley are currently on target for 27 points and Watford 26 points.
Obviously it's expected they'll put up a bit of a fight and maybe reach 30ish but I reckon 32/33 points should be enough to get 17th or 16th place.

I'd still like to see Everton getting at least 35 points though, not just to avoid relegation but to show that Lampard is turning things round and improving the performance and the results. Considering it's mathematically possible to get to 70 points, getting to 35 points would still be piss poor.

Not one of the teams beneath us is sniffing 35 points. Brentford Palace and Leeds will be dragged into it before us

I think Burnley, Norwich and Leeds will go down. All three of those will struggle to get to 30 points.

We'll stay up on about 35 points. It's going to be painful but our home fixtures should see us safe.

We are on 22 points, 13 points more will easly see us safe.. the days of the 40 point mark being the bar are long gone 34, 35 is plenty these days, last year 29 points would have seen you safe, it might be a little higher this year I'd say 32 would be enough. That's 3 more wins and a draw, we are easly getting that, our home form will see us through this year.

35 points should be enough for survival this season, can see if only being a handful of points, between 11th and 18th.

We'll pick up enough to be safe, just can't afford defeats in our easier home games.

We simply have to win 3 of those home games and try and scrape a few draws away, 35 pts might be enough

After we play Man City, win, lose or draw, we have our season in our hands

Doucoure, Godfrey, Gray all hopefully back and home games against our rivals.

We have to wake up to reality but we have to be realistic. 40 points is a good target but I'd say 35 would do it.

Home form will be enough to stay up.

Can see 9-10 points from the remaining home games:

Wolves
Newcastle
Manchester United
Crytsal Palace
Chelsea
Brentford

Probably only need 1 win away from home. 35 points will be a cert to stay up IMO.

Listening to Talksport on Saturday and they were talking about the magical “40 points” thing, they basically said that this season it could be as low as 34 points and still survive. They said that on average over the last 20 years the team in 18th place finished on 35 points, which means 36 points would be enough.
Obviously none of us want it to get to needing a result on the last day. Part of me is still hoping we go in a mad winning run and pull well clear.

I think 30-35 points keeps you up this season...

35 points max will be needed for safety based on previous seasons. Going back seven seasons and the largest number of points from 18th after 26 games to 18th after 38 games is 13 points.

Currently Burnley sit on 21 points in 18th. It would therefore be highly unusual for 18th to have more than 34 points after 38 games.

Also worth noting that recent history below has shown the gap actually shrinking and the points tally for 18th trending downwards. Potentially as the gap between the top and bottom teams in the premier league has grown ?

2020/21 - 23 to 28
2019/20 - 24 to 34
2018/19 - 24 to 34
2017/18 - 24 to 33
2016/17 - 22 to 34
2015/16 - 24 to 37
2014/15 - 22 to 35

12 points should see us safe for sure, and likely less. Three wins and three draws from fourteen games.

34 or 35 i think is the number

If someone offered 35 points now I would take it.
Nobody is going down with 35 this year

This is what I was hoping for, to reach 37 points, a sort of 'safe points total' (see below) . We needed an extra 15 points I thought, but maybe with the others so bad, we might only need 35.
In the middle there, a run of 6 games unbeaten. Very very tough, but I think it's the only way to be definitely safe.

• Man City - home L good result if we don't get battered - update: good game, uplifting maybe, but then the next one we did get battered!!
• Spurs - away L
  
  need a 6 match unbeaten streak - very hard!
  
  
• Wolves - home D
• Newcastle - home W **
• Watford - away D**
• West Ham - away D**
• Man U - home D
• Palace - home W **
  
  Imagine if 5 points out of the last 7 games still keeps us safe. Wow.
  
  
• RS - away L
• Chelsea - home D**
• Leicester - away L
• Brentford - home W
• Arsenal - away L
• Burnley - away L
• Leicester - home D

(Copied the fixture list from a @LouReedwalkonthewildside post last week)

2 or 3 weeks ago I was saying 35 points would be enough to keep us up but now I reckon 32 will be enough to scrape by. Having said that, I have little confidence we can get another 10 points from our 13 remaining games so I'm still very nervous and will be until we're mathmatically safe.

Yeah thats why I still see 34 or 35 as the number. But if there is a run in the last few games, we are the team who could be vulnerable. I do worry a little about Burnley down the stretch. If there are teams with nothing to play for, they could easily win games.

I never said we are doomed. I just dont think you're being balanced either by suggesting a team on 35 points could still go down.

Yep, maybe even a bit less than 35 this season. 3 wins and a draw should be ok if we can somehow muster it. 11 games left and the 5 at home are going to be super important, got to keep behind them and try and drag them through. Then most of them can do one.

I think we need about 35 points

We need to expect an unexpected result or two in the run in because they usually happen with teams fighting for their lives.

I can see why fans are concerned, and I am too, but some are quick to label us terrible but at the same time big up other teams below us in the table.

If Burnley are a much better defence than us (conceded 9 less), then that means we have a much better attack than them (we've scored 8 more). Burnley and Watford are below us in the table for a reason. They are both awful teams.

Burnley have only won 3 all season and even if they beat us, which is likely, they'll still struggle to add 2-3 more wins after that. Same with Watford.

We have the home games to try and get about 8-9 points and hope we can get a point or two away. I think 35 points will probably be enough but even if we only manage about 33, there are no guarantees Burnley and Watford will even reach that either.

We may have 1 win in however long. Burnley have 3 in 28. They are a horrendous football team.

Looking at the table and fixtures I think 34/35 pts will keep someone up this year. Seems ridiculous that is only 9 points away but feels like it might as well be 90 tonight.

I can't see a run from Burnley or Norwich, although obviously them playing each other this weekend is huge. Watford are the most likely to put 2/3 wins on the bounce together that will make all the difference as games run out.

Still a reasonable chance no-one does though and we just need to scrape a point more than the others. Clutching at straws?

Tsk....I was expecting a defiant davek Burnley will lose all their games 5-0 in the run in type post!

I think the only glimmer is this.....Leeds have a very hard run in themselves. Still got to play all of Man. City, Arsenal and Chelsea and got Palace away.

They're properly back in it if they lose at Watford on Saturday. Yes that brings Watford properly into the mix but I think that's the result needed on Saturday rather than Leeds winning.

Leeds have worst GD besides Norwich down there and they may only finish on 34-35 points so that's still the chance as illogical as it sounds given still ahead of Burnley and five points off them.

I just look at Burnley's run in and I see them winning 2-3 more games and drawing a couple so I'd be amazed if they don't get to 35 points now.

On last night's evidence Burnley won't get to 35, they're an awful side. They were gifted a win by our mental block away from home after being second best.

3 wins would do it and if anyone down the bottom is capable of that it's Goodison Park with our fans. We'll win at least 2 at home so it might come down to Watford away if we don't win another.

On the flip side, Burnley have only won 4 games in 29. Nothing from this season suggests they will now win say 3-4 in their final 9 games.

They do have it in them to draw though. So even 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses gives them 9 more points - 33 points. We'd only need to match them in that case. 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses for us or 3 wins, 6 losses. I think that's possible - 34 points.

I also don't see Watford getting 13 points from 24, which they'd need to get 35 points and ahead of the 34 I'm saying we'd need in the scenario above.

34 or 35.
We will get to that anyway

35, maybe 36 at a push

Agreed. Just what I was saying to my boy. 35 points will be enough because the teams below are really bad. Burnley proved that by losing to Norwich!

Nice but the fact it took Burnley 29 games to win 4 games and your saying they win 4/8 not gonna happen
Problem is we are use to bring top half where most time the teams get that amount of points.
Fact is be lucky to get 10 points between both teams.
The old 40 point mark been gone a few years now. 33/35 will be enough
Maybe even less then that

Reckon 35 points will be enough to stay up, so 7 more required from us. Beat Leicester and I’ll actually believe it’s on, had us dead and buried post Burnley. As long as we don’t go into Arsenal away on the final day needing something, I’ll take this mess of a season with its many pitfalls.

Still think 35 points is the magic number, reach that and we'll definitely stay up. 29 with that rescued point, I can definitely us getting 6 more with the home games we have left. Maybe snatch 1 or 2 more away as well.

Burnley are on 25 with 7 games left, there is honestly no way they're getting 10 points, especially now with Dyche gone. Even if they climb above somehow, it will be with 2 games in hand so we absolutely shouldn't be losing our heads.

Tonight was frustrating because that game was so winnable but in a relegation dog-fight like this every point matters. Burnley dropping two against knackered West Ham and us snatching one at the death against Leicester will likely be huge. Don't relax but don't be panicking either.

People saying Burnley are going to win 3 or 4 games, have you watched them? They're so, so poor and now have lost a huge character in Westwood and also crazily sacked their manager who was their best asset. They'll be lucky to get 6 or 7, never mind 10. 30-32 points surely won't be enough.

So depressing we're even having conversations like this but barring us going on a mad losing run I don't see them getting then staying above us.

I'm doing this in the hope Leeds lose 4 and draw 1 of there next 4 games so i can happily have egg on my chubby chase.

 

[barearse-alona]

them ones were last day. i don’t want more but if have to we do. got to do our best to stay up before then

Eh? Did you get dropped on your head as a child?

 

[LABlue2]

Most these from a couple weeks ago. Not arsed going back months.

















































































I'm doing this in the hope Leeds lose 4 and draw 1 of there next 4 games so i can happily have egg on my chubby chase.

I posted that in October

(and was generally right except we were even worse than expected and actually will go down this year!)

 

[Death]

I posted that in October

(and was generally right except we were even worse than expected and actually will go down this year!)

Yep you where the very oldest. Most from the last month. Many a few weeks ago

 

[WilliamPerry]

Woke up with the worst hangover only to find out burnley won. may as well get back on the ale

 

[Cork Evertonian]

Said it all season. Burnley know how to get through a relegation scrap. I didn't think they'd sack Dyche, but credit to them, it's worked. Watford aren't bothered if they go down or not, Norwich the same. They both know they're equipped for the Championship and have a decent chance of promotion. We're not experienced in these battles, nor experienced in that division. It's a genuine disaster for us to go down, but it's happening. I've made my peace with it.

A post from a kopite with a like from @Bkk Andy another kopite.

 

[Cork Evertonian]

I feel confident that we'll win today. I don't why i just do. We are Everton aren't we?

 

[Death]

I feel confident that we'll win today. I don't why i just do. We are Everton aren't we?

Its 4am. Hit the sack corky. Take some d10s to bring you down

 

[Cork Evertonian]

Its 4am. Hit the sack corky. Take some d10s to bring you down

Between the Chelsea game and the hurling game against Clare in Thurles, today is going to be a busy day.